Source Library: 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle

Bibliographic index of all sources contributing to the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle concept page.

External Source Library

SourceDateAuthorKey Takeaway
2026-05-03-foldvary-depression-of-20082007Fred FoldvaryPredicts 2008 from 1990+18; full Hoyt peak table 1818–2006
2026-05-03-foldvary-depression-retrospective-20092009Fred FoldvaryConfirms depression arrived; land-value collapse mechanism
2026-05-03-foldvary-riding-upswing-20152015Fred FoldvaryCycle still on track; next depression in 2026 (written 2015)
2026-05-03-gaffney-role-of-land-markets-20092009Mason Gaffney800-year persistence; 20-element cycle anatomy; property tax as remedy
2026-05-03-gaffney-mechanism-henry-george2007Mason GaffneySprawl + credit mechanism; everyone with a mortgage is a land speculator
2026-05-03-hoyt-cyclical-fluctuations-19471947Homer HoytPrimary source: 1836/1856/1872/1890/1925 Chicago peaks; operating leverage collapse
2026-05-03-harrison-power-in-the-land-hoyt-heist1983Fred HarrisonHoyt’s own land deals prove the cycle; refutes Hoyt’s “cycle is dead” claim
2026-05-03-hoyt-biography-20192019Hoyt InstituteAcademic context; Hoyt’s 1933 Chicago dissertation still cited 80+ years later
2026-05-03-ryan-collins-rethinking-land-housing-ch12017Ryan-Collins et al.UK land 15x vs. house 5x since WWII; three UK boom-busts = credit liberalisations
2026-05-03-ryan-collins-bsp-lecture-transcript2019Josh Ryan-Collins80% of house price changes = land values across 14 economies; neoclassical land erasure
2026-05-03-ryan-collins-iipp-lecture-20192019Josh Ryan-CollinsIIPP lecture on economic rent and housing affordability
2026-05-03-harvard-extension-20222022Harvard ExtensionFour-phase model; three indicators of trouble; Foldvary’s 2008 prediction as credibility anchor
2026-05-03-effectiveagents-18yr-cycle-20262026EffectiveAgentsCurrent market stats (Dec 2025); cycle timeline 1800–2026; regional variation analysis
2026-05-03-harrison-ultimate-prediction-transcript-2026~2023Fred Harrison2026 peak, 2028 end; COVID accelerated rather than derailed; 2024–2026 = “final rocket”
2026-05-03-harrison-economic-meltdown-qa-transcript~2023Fred HarrisonUnearned rent mechanism; Georgist framework defended against libertarian critique
2026-05-03-harrison-daily-renter-20252025The Daily RenterBuffett exit from real estate cited as cycle-peak signal
2026-05-03-harrison-moneyweek-20222022Fred HarrisonPaywalled; widely cited as Harrison’s 2026 prediction source
2026-05-03-georgist-journal-18yr-20122012Gaffney/Harrison/Foldvary roundtableBest internal Georgist debate: “average vs. structural” tension; 1911 exception = property tax reform
2026-05-03-mat-smith-substack-20242024Mat SmithSkeptical insider: UK pre-WWII data shows no 18yr cycle; pattern only post-1990 nominal; real-terms data more supportive
2026-05-03-landlordvision-18yr-cycle-20232023LandlordVisionUK practitioner view; Harrison’s crash prediction history; COVID caveat
2026-05-03-daily-mail-australia-20262026Daily Mail AustraliaPSE Darren Wilson + mainstream skeptics; structural supply shortage argument vs. cycle timing
2026-05-03-patel-atelier-wealth-20242024Akhil PatelPSE framework for Australia; Patel’s origin story
2026-05-03-patel-property-geek-podcast-20172017Akhil PatelEarly Patel cycle education for UK investors
2026-05-03-patel-propertytribes-20192019Akhil PatelBlocked (login required)
2026-05-03-patel-interview-20152015Akhil PatelBlocked (corrupted PDF)
2026-05-03-earthsharing-harrison-archive2006+Prosper AustraliaHarrison in Australian Georgist context; Karl Fitzgerald connection
2026-05-03-lvtfan-18yr-cycle-20102010LVTFanBlocked (403)
2026-05-03-dear-money-18yr-still-work2024Dear MoneyBlocked (timeout)

Historical Evidence Sources

SourceDateAuthorKey Takeaway
foldvary-depression-of-20081997/2007Fred FoldvaryReproduces Hoyt’s peak table 1818–2006; predicts 2008 depression — confirmed ✅
hoyt-cyclical-fluctuations-19471947Homer HoytPost-war retrospective; Chicago peaks 1836/1856/1872/1890/1925
gaffney-role-of-land-markets-20092009Mason Gaffney8-element cycle anatomy; 800-year persistence; property tax remedy
harrison-power-in-the-land-hoyt-heist1983Fred HarrisonCycle alive post-WWII; REITs as new amplifier
georgist-journal-18yr-interview-20122012Gaffney/Harrison/FoldvaryPanel debate on cycle reliability; “average not a law” vs. “structural certainty”
gaffney-review-anderson-secret-life-20092009Mason GaffneyEndorsement of Anderson’s book; confirms indicator sequence 1800–present
2026-04-23-boom-bust-house-prices-banking-depression-of-2010-fred-harrison2026-04-23Fred HarrisonBoom Bust book (2005/2010): 200 years UK data; 2026 bust predicted
2026-04-23-power-in-the-land-fred-harrison2026-04-23Fred HarrisonPower in the Land (1983): cycle alive post-WWII; REITs as amplifier
2026-04-23-the-secret-life-of-real-estate-and-banking-phil-anderson2026-04-23Phil AndersonSecret Life of Real Estate and Banking: US cycle 1800–present; leading/lagging indicator sequence
ryan-collins-rethinking-land-housing-ch12017Ryan-Collins et al.Ch. 1: bank credit → land price feedback; UK 15× land multiplier
harrison-moneyweek-2026-interview-20222022Fred Harrison2026 peak prediction (paywalled) ⏳

PSE Subscriber Email Sources (2026)

SourceDateKey Claim
2026-01-07-roadmap-2026-available2026-01-072026 Roadmap; 1966 odd-man-out Dow shape
2026-01-21-trump-running-hot2026-01-21”Markets can’t top until we’re all-in”
2026-02-02-bird-flu-timing2026-02-02”14 up, 4 down” — cycle structure
2026-02-16-bitcoin-crash-end-of-cycle2026-02-16”This is how real estate cycles end”
2026-03-02-roadmap-cycle-update-february2026-03-02”Underlying driver is the peaking of the land cycle”
2026-03-05-canary-credit-coalmine2026-03-05”The end is almost here” — private credit collapse
2026-03-10-banks-ayandeh2026-03-10Rising interest rates are effect, not cause
2026-03-31-roadmap-update-march2026-03-31Cycle top NOT yet reached as of March 2026