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Summary
Phil argues all the classic signs of the “Winner’s Curse” phase are now present: leverage in private credit, bank profits surging, circular AI investment loops (chip companies funding AI companies), new gambling vehicles, Magnificent Seven exhausting cash piles and becoming net debtors. He states markets can’t top until everyone is “all-in” — all cash must be drawn into speculation. Trump’s hot-running policies simply add to land value. The Fed being abolished would create the biggest cycle ever.
Key Claims
- Markets cannot peak until everyone is “all in” — all cash drawn in and all positions leveraged. — confidence: high
- Amazon, Meta, Microsoft have moved from large cash piles to becoming net debtors, all-in on AI. — confidence: high (as of Jan 2026)
- AI chip companies funding AI companies creates circular earnings inflation that will deflate. — confidence: high
- Trump’s hot-running policies (lower rates, 50-year mortgages, crypto speculation) all inflate land value, not fundamentals. — confidence: high
- Private credit market leverage unprecedented; strong bank profits confirm late-cycle lending conditions. — confidence: high
- Abolishing the Fed in an economy with economic rent enclosure would create a “massive cycle.” — confidence: medium (author’s thesis)
- Historical parallels: 1987-89 (18% interest rates, still borrowing), 1969-71, Poseidon speculation in Australia. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- A crash will come after all cash disappears into leveraged bets. — status: pending
Concepts Referenced
Notable Quotes
“Markets – especially the stock market, and housing markets too – can’t top until we’re all-in. All the cash has to be gone.”
“Everything being done simply adds to land value. All of the speculative activity happening at the moment just pushes land values and stock markets higher, based on inflated economic rent. That capitalizes into prices.”