Summary
Practitioner UK landlord blog article explaining the 18-year cycle for a property investor audience. Notes Harrison’s 1998 prediction of the 2007–08 financial crash and his 2005 book “Boom and Bust.” Describes cycle phases with UK-specific context: 3–4 year recession → 6–7 year recovery → 1–2 year mid-cycle correction → 5–6 year boom. As of the article (2021 original, updated 2023), assesses the UK as entering the boom phase around 2019–20 with 8.6% YoY price gains.
Key Claims
- Harrison predicted the 2007–08 crash “as early as 1998” — and supported this with 200 years of UK house price data — confidence: high [Source: LandlordVision, 2023]
- UK crash evidence cited: 1953–54, 1971–72, 1989–90 — three data points supporting the pattern — confidence: high [Source: LandlordVision, 2023]
- Phase timing: 3–4 year recession → 6–7 year recovery → 1–2 year correction → 5–6 year boom → crash — total ~18 years — confidence: medium [Source: LandlordVision, 2023]
- UK house prices rose 8.6% in the prior 12 months (from 2021 baseline) with 95% LTV mortgages available — “hallmarks of a boom phase” — confidence: high [Source: LandlordVision, 2023]
- Caveat: COVID-19 could disrupt the cycle as WWI/WWII did — Harrison himself acknowledges world-scale shocks can alter timing — confidence: high [Source: LandlordVision, 2023]
- Self-fulfilling prophecy risk: as the theory gains popularity and investors plan around it, predictions become more likely to come true — confidence: medium [Source: LandlordVision, 2023]