Summary
A 2025 news article correlating Fred Harrison’s 18-year cycle prediction of a 2026 peak with observable market signals, particularly Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reportedly selling HomeServices of America to Compass. The article frames Buffett’s exit as a confirming signal that the market is near its predicted peak. Also notes rising mortgage rates (6.8%), commercial real estate stress, and record-low home sales in 2023 as supporting evidence.
Key Claims
- Harrison’s 300-year study of land prices shows a boom-bust cycle peaking roughly every 18 years before a sharp correction — the next peak is predicted for 2026 — confidence: high [Source: The Daily Renter, 2025]
- Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reportedly selling HomeServices of America (one of largest US real estate brokerages) — noted as a rare Berkshire divestiture — confidence: medium [Source: The Daily Renter, 2025]
- HomeServices reported a 250M settlement in a real estate commission lawsuit — confidence: high [Source: The Daily Renter, 2025]
- Existing home sales in 2023 hit their lowest level in nearly 30 years (per NAR) — confidence: high [Source: The Daily Renter, 2025]
- Commercial real estate: office vacancies at record highs, refinancing challenges amid high interest rates — confidence: high [Source: The Daily Renter, 2025]
- Georgist framework: Harrison’s theory roots in economic land rent — as land prices rise unchecked, speculation drives the market into an unsustainable bubble — confidence: high [Source: The Daily Renter, 2025]
Notable Quotes
“According to Harrison’s study of 300 years of land prices, the real estate market follows a predictable cycle of boom and bust with a peak occurring roughly every 18 years before a sharp downturn.”
“Buffett’s potential exit from real estate may be the strongest signal yet that turbulence lies ahead.”