Summary
Phil documents two fresh bank/credit collapses: Ayandeh Bank (Iran, Oct 2025) — one of Iran’s biggest banks failed due to insider loans and property speculation; Market Financial Solutions Ltd (London, collapsed March 5, 2026) — ~£200-300M missing, CEO spent on sports memorabilia and parties. Phil notes US markets appear to be deliberately supported (strong buying each afternoon) and won’t change Roadmap red line yet. He reiterates that the cycle ends due to rising interest rates (effect, not cause) — the cause is land prices having risen too high.
Key Claims
- Ayandeh Bank (Iran) failed October 2025 due to insider loans and property speculation — classic late-cycle bank failure. — confidence: high
- Market Financial Solutions Ltd (London) collapsed March 5, 2026 with ~£200-300M missing. — confidence: high
- US markets appear to be deliberately supported by government/related entities (strong afternoon buying). — confidence: medium
- Conditions now in place for 2026 to follow the 20/60 Roadmap line (rising 10 and 30-year bond yields). — confidence: medium
- US debt defaults are rising. — confidence: high
- “The end of the real estate cycle is brought on by rising interest rates. This is an effect, it is not the cause.” — confidence: high (PSE core thesis)
Predictions / Forecasts
- A lower top in US indices in April would confirm the more bearish 20/60 Roadmap line. — status: pending
Concepts Referenced
Notable Quotes
“The end of the real estate cycle is brought on by rising interest rates. This is an effect, it is not the cause of the real estate cycle. The cause is land prices having risen so high in the first place and the enclosure of the economic rent.”