Summary
Akhil provides a comprehensive roadmap update through end of February. The 2026 Roadmap forecast curves were accurate through Jan/Feb: called for a pause/dip in February, which occurred. Nasdaq peaked Oct 2025 (same time as Bitcoin); Dow peaked Feb 10. Rotation from US tech into European/Asian/industrial stocks is driving UK FTSE, Nikkei, Germany, Australia strength. “HALO” (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence) companies are the new late-cycle winners. April 2026 flagged as a key watch date (30 months from Oct 2023 low, 42nd month of bull market, 89 months from late 2018 volatility). Middle East war strikes referenced (Feb 28) as potentially bringing forward the April emotion.
Key Claims
- Roadmap forecast curves correct in calling Feb pause/dip. — confidence: high (confirmed)
- Nasdaq peaked Oct 2025 with Bitcoin; Dow peaked Feb 10, 2026. — confidence: high (confirmed)
- Capital is rotating from US tech into European/Asian industrial/resource/banking stocks (UK FTSE breakout, Japan, Germany, Australia). — confidence: high
- “HALO” (Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence) stocks — manufacturers, utilities, defence, resource companies — are late-cycle outperformers. — confidence: high
- April 2026 is a key date: 30 months from Oct 2023 low, 42nd month from Oct 2022 bull market start, 89 months from late 2018 volatility. — confidence: high
- Dow Jones Transportation Average strong — historically tops after Industrial Average (e.g., May 2008 top vs Oct 2007). — confidence: high
- Equal-weighted S&P 500 outperforming cap-weighted since late 2025 = broad participation. — confidence: high
- Late-stage rotation from tech to industrial/material/utility sectors underway. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- April 2026: expected turn/emotion in markets. — status: pending (written Mar 2, war started Feb 28 — may have brought it forward)
- Bull market resumption expected in March after forecast-called dip. — status: pending
Concepts Referenced
Notable Quotes
“The era of US stock market ‘exceptionalism’ which we heard a lot about in recent years is now over.”
“HALO — Heavy Asset Low Obsolescence — previously these companies were shunned in relative terms precisely because of their huge financing needs and long-lead times for investment.”
“We’ve earmarked April 2026 as an interesting date to watch for a possible turn or some emotion, this being 30 months from the low in October 2023.”