Summary
This chapter from Harrison’s 1983 book “Power in the Land” confronts Homer Hoyt’s own 1960s claim that the 18-year cycle had been “eliminated.” Harrison documents Hoyt’s personal land speculation history (buying at peaks in Chicago 1925 and Florida 1943, then eventually profiting with a 2,500% gain on Fairfax County land purchased in 1954 at the cycle trough) to show Hoyt himself ultimately confirmed the cycle. Harrison then presents post-war evidence to refute Hoyt’s claim that the cycle had ceased.
Key Claims
- Hoyt in 1933 predicted the cycle might only be “of interest to historians” — and by 1968 declared “The fluctuations in the real estate cycle which characterised our economy in the 150 years prior to 1933, have ceased” — confidence: high [Source: Harrison, Power in the Land, 1983]
- Harrison refutes this with Hoyt’s own biography: bought Chicago land at 1925 peak (lost money), bought Florida land at 1943 military-demand peak (lost money), but bought Fairfax County VA land in 1954 at cycle trough for 350/acre — sold 1972 for $7,000/acre (2,500% gain) — confidence: high [Source: Harrison, Power in the Land, 1983]
- Hoyt’s 1954 buy demonstrates the cycle was alive — he succeeded because he bought at the trough — confidence: high [Source: Harrison, Power in the Land, 1983]
- Harrison’s methodology: interviewed Chicago real estate appraisers and examined aggregate post-war land data not available to Hoyt in 1930 — confirming post-war cycle continuation — confidence: high [Source: Harrison, Power in the Land, 1983]
Notable Quotes
“Homer Hoyt’s grandparents emigrated from Germany in 1853… Homer recalls that his mother had a burning desire to own land, and this desire was inherited by her son.”
“The secret, he told himself, was to buy land early in the cycle in values, and then sell before the down-turn. Someone else should be left holding over-valued land when the slump came.”