PSE Gann Sub Email #33 — Seasonal Timings (Equinox: Dollar Reversal Watch, GDX at Support, RSP Divergence)

Summary (TL;DR)

Phil Anderson’s Gann sub email #33 (23 September 2026) is built around the equinox seasonal date — the same date Akhil Patel flagged in Sub Email #40 as the immediate tactical marker. Phil watches three setups into it: the US Dollar Index rallying into the equinox, where a reversal lower would be a tailwind for gold; GDX (VanEck Gold Miners) retracing to its 200-day moving average with the 50-day close to crossing back above; and RSP (equal-weight S&P 500) diverging negatively from the cap-weighted index as the Magnificent 7 make new highs while the average stock pulls back. The macro frame is explicit: the Fed hiked a quarter point last week — the first hike in over three years — with Chair Kevin Warsh signalling more (“removing a dose of accommodation”), and Phil reads that directly through the real estate cycle lens: “Fed tightening tends to play a major role in ending the real estate cycle’s upswing, and here we are.” No watchlist changes; the portfolio point is a pyramiding lesson — compare CGS (tight coiling backtest, resuming higher) vs IEFA (stalled, drifting, no signs of accumulation). [Source: PSE, Gann Sub Email #33, 2026-09-23]

Key Claims

• Fed hiked 25bp last week — first hike in over three years. Chair Kevin Warsh called it “removing a dose of accommodation,” implying the bank still sees rates as stimulative and more hikes are likely. — confidence: high
• Market-implied odds point to three additional hikes into next year. — confidence: high
• Macro data supporting further tightening: August payrolls +162,000 (upside surprise), last month’s retail sales the strongest in five months, and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker at 5.1% annualised for Q3. — confidence: high
• Phil was not surprised by the hike: it was consistent with “our point in the real estate cycle” and with the 2-year Treasury yield, which leads changes in the Fed funds rate. — confidence: high
• “Fed tightening tends to play a major role in ending the real estate cycle’s upswing, and here we are.” The average stock’s recent struggle for traction may be a reflection of this. — confidence: high
• US Dollar Index is rallying into the equinox; seasonal dates (solstice/equinox, plus their midpoints) often mark changes in direction for the dollar. A reversal lower would have implications for other sectors, notably gold. — confidence: medium
• GDX has held up much better than the precious metal itself. The retracement of the late-July rally brings GDX back to its 200-day moving average, with the 50-day close to crossing back above — moving-average support into a seasonal date. — confidence: medium
• GDX time counts: 30 days ago was its most recent high; 60 days ago was the late-July low — “a good example of how you can combine the elements of time and seasonal dates with technical analysis.” — confidence: high
• RSP (equal-weight S&P 500) is diverging negatively: RSP kept pace with (and at times led) the cap-weighted index into early September, but has pulled back this month while the index hovers near record highs — i.e. the Magnificent 7 are carrying the index. — confidence: high
• Watch whether RSP sees a change in trend at the equinox and catches up to the cap-weighted index. — confidence: medium
• Pyramiding rule: “the best positions with strong momentum will not spend much time pulling back and should be in a hurry to rally higher.” CGS formed tight, coiling action on its breakout backtest then resumed with a quick upside burst; IEFA worked immediately, stalled in mid-August and has drifted lower — the signs of strong accumulation seen in CGS “are not emerging.” — confidence: high

Notable Quotes

“Fed tightening tends to play a major role in ending the real estate cycle’s upswing, and here we are.”

“He referred to the move as ‘removing a dose of accommodation’, implying the central bank still sees interest rates as stimulative to the economy.”

“The dollar is rallying into this seasonal date, where a change in direction lower could have implications for other sectors.”

“We weren’t surprised by the Fed’s move given our point in the real estate cycle and the message coming from the 2-year Treasury yield that tends to lead changes in the Fed funds rate.”

“Many investors and traders are tempted by pullbacks. But the best positions with strong momentum will not spend much time pulling back and should be in a hurry to rally higher.”

Watchlist Changes

• None — no ADD, REMOVE, RAISE STOP, or EXIT in this email. It is cycle/timing commentary with a pyramiding lesson on existing holdings (CGS, IEFA).
• PDF adjudication in the same window (nightly sync): Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-22-2026.pdf and ...-September-23-2026.pdf — both price-only re-uploads, no material change. mex-pete-pdf-diff.py vs the 18 September PDF shows the identical four open positions with stops/entries unchanged — DBA @29.49 stop 27.50 (adjusted stop 28 since 15.09.2026), CGS @3.03 stop 2.70, SFR @24.88 stop 20.00, IEFA @99.88 stop 97.00 — with only marked-to-market prices moving (DBA 28.42→28.55, CGS 3.435→3.31, SFR 21.7→22.87, IEFA 98.93→99.47). Silent per Floyd’s 2026-05-15 rule; the 2026-09-18-mex-pete-portfolio-snapshot page remains the canonical Mex Pete record. [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-23-2026]

Concepts Referenced

• gann-time-counts
• planetary-cycles
• us-dollar-hegemony
• market-breadth-divergence
• commodity-supercycle
• financial-conditions
• 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle
• mex-pete-model-portfolio

Emma’s Analysis

This email is the mechanism note under Sub Email #40’s calendar. Patel’s #40 (21 September) mapped the when — the 5 August Dow high ~90 degrees off the 3 November mid-terms, with the equinox (23 September) as the immediate marker. Phil’s #33 supplies the what to watch on the date: dollar, GDX, RSP. Read together, PSE’s September stance is internally consistent — dates mark where turns can occur, and the named instruments are the tells of whether the turn is arriving. Per Floyd’s standing instruction (2026-07-12), frame through the 18.6-year lens: this is the late-upswing signature where the calendar leads and the fundamental reading only confirms afterwards. [Source: PSE, Gann Sub Email #33, 2026-09-23]

The Fed hike is the cycle-relevant paragraph, not the trade setups. Phil states the causal chain plainly — tightening ends the upswing — and cites the 2-year Treasury yield as the leading indicator that made the hike non-surprising. That is financial-conditions tightening arriving on schedule, and it lines up with the credit-side warning in 2026-09-07-pse-sub-39-banks-credit-australia (BATHLA, shadow banking at cycle highs) and with Patel’s Q&A call that 2026 is the land-cycle peak reached, with recession expected within 18–20 months. Three separate PSE channels — a Gann timing email, a subscriber credit email, and a member Q&A — have now converged on the same read without contradicting each other. That convergence, not any single call, is the signal. [Source: PSE, Gann Sub Email #33, 2026-09-23]

The RSP divergence is the most actionable observation in the email. market-breadth-divergence is the classic late-cycle tell: a handful of mega-caps masking a weakening average stock. Phil notes the 2-year yield’s message and the Fed’s hawkishness as candidate causes. In the winners-curse-phase framework this is exactly the texture of the final leg — index-level strength that is not participatory — which is why the discipline clause matters: you stay with the trend and with the strongest names, not with the index narrative. [Source: PSE, Gann Sub Email #33, 2026-09-23]

The CGS-vs-IEFA comparison is a portable rule, and it has a live consequence. Phil’s criterion (a good position doesn’t spend time pulling back; the backtest should coil and then burst) is a concrete, falsifiable pyramiding filter. Applied to the current Mex Pete book: CGS (+13.4% at the 18 September snapshot, in a tight backtest that resumed higher) passes; IEFA (stalled since mid-August, below entry at 98.93 with stop 97.00) fails — and Phil says so explicitly. Given IEFA’s stop is close (97.00 vs 98.93 on 18 September, 99.47 by 23 September), the practical read is that IEFA is the book’s weakest long and the likely next stop-out candidate if the equinox date resolves lower. That is a useful, dated expectation to score next run. [Source: PSE, Gann Sub Email #33, 2026-09-23]

GDX vs the metal is the intermarket tell to follow. Mining equities leading the metal on the way up is the standard risk-appetite pattern in the commodity-supercycle; Phil’s point that “the mining stocks have held up much better than the precious metal itself” is consistent with the gold path Patel described in the Q&A (consolidation → crisis sell-off → strong run resuming in ~2 years). Watch the 200-day/50-day cross as the nearer-term test.