Mex Pete Model Portfolio Snapshot (September 18, 2026)

Summary

The September 18, 2026 Mex Pete Model Portfolio PDF documents the portfolio’s first stop-out since the August reactivation: **AME (Ametek) long was stopped out on 09.09.2026 at $230.61\ast \ast ,agap-throughofits$233.00 stop costing **−$23.44/unit\ast \ast (thelevel-basedlosswas-$21.05/unit). The portfolio is now 4 active long positions — DBA, CGS, SFR, IEFA — the first contraction from the 5-position peak recorded across four consecutive PDFs (Aug 28 → Sep 4). The headline positive is a RAISE STOP on DBA: stop lifted from $27.50to$28.00 on 15.09.2026 — the first stop adjustment on the sheet since the August entries — though DBA’s current print of $28.42sitsonly$0.42 above it. CGS is the standout performer at $3.435(+13.4$3.03 entry), SFR remains deeply underwater at $21.70(-12.8$24.88), and IEFA has slipped below entry to $98.93(entry$99.88, stop $97.00). [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-18-2026]

Key Claims

• AME long EXITED — stop triggered 09.09.2026 at $230.61\ast \ast (entry$254.05, 05.08.2026, stop $233.00).Realized\ast \ast -$23.44/unit; at the stop level the loss would have been −$21.05/unit,sothegapadded$2.39/unit of slippage. — confidence: high
• Active positions fall from 5 to 4: DBA (#1), CGS (#2), SFR (#3), IEFA (#4). AME was position #5. — confidence: high
• DBA adjusted stop: $27.50\to$28.00, dated 15.09.2026 (adjusted stop 28, “date moved” 15.09.2026). DBA entry 02.09.2026 at $29.49;currentprice$28.42 — only $0.42 above the raised stop. — confidence: high
• CGS long: current $3.435(entry$3.03, 26.08.2026, stop $2.70) — +13.4%, the portfolio’s best open position. — confidence: high
• SFR long: current $21.70(entry$24.88, 26.08.2026, stop $20.00)—\ast \ast -12.8$1.70 above its stop. — confidence: high
• IEFA long: current $98.93(entry$99.88, 05.08.2026, stop $97.00) — −0.95%, slipped back below entry for the first time since Sep 4. — confidence: high
• No new entries in this PDF. Entry count remains 4; all historical rows #5–#39 on the sheet carry exit dates/out prices. — confidence: high

Watchlist Changes

• EXIT: AME (Ametek Inc, US) — stop triggered 09.09.2026 at $230.61,-$23.44/unit. [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-18-2026]
• RAISE STOP: DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture Fund) — stop raised $27.50\to$28.00 effective 15.09.2026, locking the position to roughly breakeven risk after the $29.49 entry. [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-18-2026]
• No ADDs, no other REMOVEs. The last entry action was DBA’s ADD on 02.09.2026. [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-18-2026]

Concepts Referenced

• Mex Pete Model Portfolio
• Watchlists
• 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle
• Commodity Supercycle
• Winners Curse Phase

Emma’s Analysis

This snapshot is the first hard evidence that the five-position commodity/resource book assembled through August and early September is not a resilient structure — it is a correlated one now being tested one position at a time. AME’s exit is the portfolio’s second consecutive stop-out after PLTR’s −$55.39/unitinAugust,andbothwere\ast \ast gap-throughs\ast \ast :AMEfilled$2.39/unit beyond its $233stop,PLTR$27.66 beyond its $135stop.Pattern:inthistape,stopsarenothonoredatthelevel.Thatmattersdirectlyforthethreepositionsnowsittingneartheirstops—DBAis\ast \ast$0.42** from a raised stop, SFR is $1.70from$20.00, IEFA is $1.93from$97.00.

The DBA stop raise is the most informative line in the PDF. Anderson rarely adjusts stops (the sheet’s last adjustment before this was the YPF $43\to$48 raise on 16.06.2026, which still ended in a −$6.74/unitstop-out).Raisingthestopto$28.00 after only 13 days converts DBA from a −6.75% risk trade into a roughly flat-risk trade — a defensive move that reads as capital preservation ahead of the midterm window, consistent with the Winners Curse Phase posture of protecting what has been earned rather than pressing for new highs. It also, however, narrows DBA’s failure threshold to a level the fund traded at on Sep 2.

The composition signal is the one to watch: with AME gone, 100% of open positions are ASX resources and agriculture (CGS, SFR, DBA) plus one international equity ETF (IEFA). The US-equity expression of the book has been fully retired — AME stopped, PLTR stopped, and (per 2026-09-09-us-watchlist-snapshot) XAR pulled from the US watchlist in the same week. Within the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle lens, that is a textbook late-cycle rotation: Anderson’s exposure has moved to the hard-asset / non-US leg as the cycle’s peak window (midterms) approaches, leaving the US equity leg to the Short Watchlist. The counter-risk is concentration — three of four positions are the same 2026 commodity breakout complex, so a single metals/agriculture drawdown can take out DBA, SFR, and IEFA in one sequence, exactly as the Sep 2 entry warned [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-2-2026].

Cross-references: 2026-09-04-mex-pete-portfolio-snapshot, 2026-09-02-mex-pete-portfolio-snapshot, 2026-09-09-us-watchlist-snapshot, 2026-09-09-aus-watchlist-snapshot, 2026-09-10-bbi-september-2026-qa