Summary
The Commodity Supercycle refers to long-wave (50-60 year Kondratiev wave, or ~30-year Saturn cycle) movements in commodity prices. PSE uses two overlapping frameworks:
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Kondratiev Long Wave (~55-60 years): Discovered by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev studying 19th/20th century Western agricultural prices. Shows 25-30 year upswings and 25-30 year downswings. Peaks typically accompany wars (power struggle for resource trade terms).
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Saturn 30-Year Cycle: Akhil Patel uses averaged 30-year commodity price segments (Saturn cycle) to generate commodity price forecasts. Track record: forecast April 2011 peak (actual was close), forecast fall to mid-2016 (confirmed), forecast subsequent sideways and then 2020s rise.
Key Historical Data Points (Kondratiev)
| Period | Phase | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1790-1815 | Up | Napoleonic Wars (UK peak ~1815) |
| 1815-1845 | Down | Post-war deflation |
| 1845-1866-73 | Up | US Civil War (US peak 1866, UK 1870s) |
| 1873-1900 | Down | Long Depression |
| 1900-1920 | Up | WWI (peak 1920) |
| 1920-1940 | Down | Great Depression |
| 1940-1980 | Up (interrupted) | WWII, Cold War, Vietnam |
| 1980-2000 | Down | Post-Cold War deflation, Asia crisis |
| 2000-2027? | Up | China BRI, US-China resource competition |
PSE Forecast for Current Cycle
- Low in commodity prices: ~2000 (Akhil and Phil)
- 25-27 years from 2000 low → 2025-2027 projected peak
- 30-year Saturn cycle confirmation of same range
- 18.6-year real estate cycle second half (post-2021) is historically bullish for commodities
- All three cycles (30-year, 60-year, 18.6-year real estate) pointing in same direction → very bullish outlook for 2020s commodities
Commodity vs. Stock Market Sequencing
- In every real estate cycle, commodities peak AFTER the stock market (confirmed 1974, 1990, 2008)
- When money exits stocks in 2026, it may flow into commodities → potential final blow-off in commodities 2026-2027
- Gold: tends to surge at end of real estate cycle (banking fears)
Great Wave Context
David Hackett Fischer’s “The Great Wave” (1996) documents ~1000 years of UK commodity prices with alternating centuries of price revolution (up) and flat/falling periods. His thesis: the 20th century’s great price revolution may be followed by near-flat commodity prices through much of the 21st century. PSE acknowledges this as a long-term constraint even while bullish on the 2020s Kondratiev upswing.
Key Features of Kondratiev Upswing
- New countries enter global trade orbit (China WTO 2001 = main driver of 2000s)
- Technology application accelerates (internet technology applied to supply chains, etc.)
- Great powers compete for resource trade terms → geopolitical tension/war
- Political turbulence as old industries decline
- Current dominant “new countries” entering orbit: India, Africa
Key Sources
- 2020-02-28-feb-2020-forecast-class-akhil-commodities — Akhil’s commodity forecast with 30-year and Kondratiev analysis
- 2020-02-28-feb-2020-forecast-class-phil-introduction — Phil’s opening covering Great Wave + Kondratiev
- 2020-02-28-feb-2020-forecast-class-akhil-grand-cycle — Akhil on commodities accompanying second half of real estate cycle
- harrison-interview-part4-2026 — Fred Harrison on commodity cycles and 2026
Open Questions
- Will the 2020s commodity upswing be muted by the Great Wave (21st century flat prices) or will it still be a significant peak?
- Is gold’s behavior at cycle end (banking crisis = gold spike) consistent with the Kondratiev thesis or an exception?
- Does the Belt and Road Initiative represent an unusually large demand driver that could make the 2020s cycle stronger than average?
Visual Evidence
Slides from PSE content showing commodity supercycles, price trends, and the 30-year commodity cycle.
Commodity price trends — 30-year cycles — historical commodity cycle chart.
Source: PSE Video
Commodity price cycles — Kondratieff wave overlaid with commodity price history.
Source: PSE Video
Commodity lows in 3rd years — table showing commodity cycle patterns by decade.
Source: PSE Video
Commodity/Gold price index — long-term chart from historical series.
Source: PSE Video
Nikolai Kondratiev and commodity prices — the K-wave and commodity supercycle connection.
Source: PSE Video
Copper futures price chart — industrial metal as commodity cycle indicator.
Source: PSE Video
Copper futures analysis — PSE commentary on copper as a leading commodity indicator.
Source: 2023-02-02-bbi-february-2023
Cotton futures — historical chart used in Gann/PSE commodity analysis.
Source: PSE Video