Gann #09 for 2026–7 — Market Update to 5 May 2026: Interest Rate Shifts, Uranium Breakout, Watchlist Updates

TL;DR

Phil Anderson flags a critical interest rate inflection: the 30-year Treasury yield is on the verge of breaking out from a Mexican Pete pattern above 5% — which would be the highest since 2007. Four dissenting votes at the latest Fed meeting (most since 1992) plus PCE accelerating to 3.5% have the market pricing no rate cuts until end of 2027, with the 2-year yield now above the effective fed funds rate (bond market entertaining rate hikes). He adds DBA (pyramid on breakout above $27–$28), removes DBC from the US watchlist, and adds URA (uranium ETF, breakout above $60), BMN (Bannerman Energy, AUS), and RKLB (Rocket Lab, US) — all displaying Mexican Pete patterns.

Key Points

• 30-year Treasury yield Mexican Pete breakout: The 30-year yield is close to breaking above 5% from a Mexican Pete ascending triangle pattern. A breakout would put it at the highest level since 2007 — a major signal for the late-cycle phase. This week is the seasonal midpoint date, making interest rate movements a key catalyst to watch. [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• Fed dissent at 1992 levels: Four dissenting votes at the latest FOMC meeting — the highest since 1992. The disagreement centred on including an easing bias in the statement. PCE price index accelerating to 3.5% YoY in March, with a clear upward trend. Market-implied odds show no rate cuts until end of 2027. [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• 2-year yield above fed funds rate = bond market pricing hikes: The 2-year Treasury yield at 3.88% is now above the effective fed funds rate. This is the bond market’s way of entertaining rate hikes ahead — a hawkish shift that contradicts the easing narrative. [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• Uranium as late-cycle commodity: Phil draws the parallel to 2006–2008 when uranium prices accelerated into the cycle peak. URA (Global X Uranium ETF) shows a Mexican Pete pattern with a breakout level at $60.BannermanEnergy(BMN,AUS)addedwithhigherlowssinceearly2025andresistancetestingat$4.80. [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• Rocket Lab and the SpaceX IPO theme: RKLB added to US watchlist at the $100round-numberlevel.PhilnotestheanticipatedSpaceXIPOcouldbe"thelargestever"withamarketvalueapproaching$2 trillion — connecting to the late-cycle “largest ever” IPO pattern. [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]

Watchlist Changes

• ADD/ADD TO POSITION: DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture Fund) — Pyramid on breakout above $27–$28; add half or less of original position. [Source: PSE, Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• REMOVE: DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund) — US Watchlist — Removed from watchlist, but still monitoring commodities as it pertains to the cycle. [Source: PSE, Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• ADD: URA (Global X Uranium ETF) — US Watchlist — Breakout above $60; Mexican Pete pattern; late-cycle commodity parallel to 2006–2008 uranium acceleration. [Source: PSE, Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• ADD: BMN (Bannerman Energy) — AUS Watchlist — Higher lows since early 2025; resistance test at $4.80; uranium sector. [Source: PSE, Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• ADD: RKLB (Rocket Lab) — US Watchlist — Setting up at $100 round level; SpaceX IPO theme (“largest ever”). [Source: PSE, Gann #09, 2026-05-06]

Notable Quotes

• “The 30-year Treasury yield is close to breaking out from a Mexican Pete pattern that I’ve highlighted in these email updates before. A breakout over 5% would put the 30-year at the highest level since 2007.” [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• “The most recent PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred gauge — increased 3.5% in March compared to last year. You can see a clear trend higher in the chart below.” [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• “Market-implied odds show no rate cuts until the end of 2027. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to lead changes in the fed funds rate, now sits at 3.88% and is above the effective fed funds rate. That’s the bond market’s way of entertaining rate hikes looking ahead.” [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• “Uranium was another late-cycle mover heading into 2008, where the breakout in uranium prices accelerated during 2006.” [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]
• “This one is interesting, given the anticipated IPO of SpaceX, which could be the largest ever, with a market value approaching $2 trillion.” [Source: Phil Anderson, PSE Gann #09, 2026-05-06]

Concepts Referenced

• bond-yields
• mex-pete-trading-style
• mex-pete-model-portfolio
• watchlists
• commodity-supercycle
• 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle
• ipo-mania

Emma’s Analysis

This is one of the most consequential Gann emails of the 2026–7 series. The 30-year Treasury yield Mexican Pete breakout above 5% would be a generational signal — the highest since 2007, right at the peak of the last cycle. This connects directly to the bond-yields concept and the broader 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle framework: rising long-end yields into the cycle peak are a hallmark of the late phase, as the bond market demands compensation for inflation risk that the Fed is behind the curve on. The four dissenting votes (most since 1992) and PCE accelerating to 3.5% suggest the Fed is losing control of the inflation narrative — exactly the kind of policy failure that characterises the winners-curse-phase where late-cycle excess meets monetary tightening.

The uranium additions (URA, BMN) are a direct parallel to 2006–2008, when uranium prices accelerated into the cycle peak. This is consistent with the commodity-supercycle thesis: commodities breakout late in the cycle as demand from the preceding boom collides with supply constraints. The removal of DBC (broad commodities) while adding targeted uranium and agriculture plays shows Phil is getting more selective — not a broad commodity bet, but targeted late-cycle movers.

The SpaceX IPO reference (“largest ever,” ~$2Tmarketvalue)isanother"largestever"signalthatPhiltracksasacyclepeakmarker,connectingto[[ipo-mania]].TheadditionofRKLBatthe$100 round-number level is a classic Mex Pete breakout setup riding the space theme that SpaceX’s IPO would catalyse. The fact that Phil is adding both long commodity positions AND short watchlist entries (from Gann #05) is the K-shaped economy in action — capital rotating from AI-disrupted software into hard assets and energy.