Investment & Economics Wiki

Fred Harrison

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Summary

Fred Harrison is a UK economist and land value theorist who predicted the 2007-08 financial crisis in his 2005 book Boom Bust and first articulated the 18-year cycle argument in The Power in the Land (1983). He predicted the 1973-75 crisis was caused by the land price cycle (not the oil shock), as referenced in the 2026 Roadmap update. Phil Anderson holds him in high esteem. As of early 2026, Harrison is working on what he describes as his “final book” and gave an unscripted ATAA talk. He warns of a “major economic reset into and after 2026.”

Key Works

  • The Power in the Land (1983, 2nd edition Shepheard-Walwyn) — first articulated 18-year land cycle
  • Boom Bust (2005) — predicted 2007-08 crisis
  • Final book — in progress as of early 2026

Track Record

  • Predicted 2007-08 GFC in 2005
  • Predicted 1973-75 crisis as land cycle driven (not oil shock) — in 1983
  • Warns of “major economic reset into and after 2026”

Relationship to PSE

  • Phil Anderson considers Harrison’s work foundational
  • ATAA talk with Harrison was a highlight; recording available via Shepheard-Walwyn

New Sources Ingested (2026-04-18)

  • The Power in the Land — “The Hoyt Heist” (1983): Harrison’s foundational 1983 chapter refuting Homer Hoyt’s claim that the 18-year cycle was “eliminated.” Uses Hoyt’s own personal land deals (Fairfax County: 2,500% profit over 20 years) to prove the cycle was alive in the post-WWII period. Also covers REITs as the new cycle-amplifying vehicle. [Source: harrison-power-in-the-land-hoyt-heist.pdf, 2026-04-18]
  • MoneyWeek Interview — “House Prices Will Peak in 2026” (April 2022): Harrison predicts 2026 house price peak as end of 14-year cycle within the 18-year business cycle. Promoting his book WeAreRent. Full content paywalled. [Source: harrison-moneyweek-2026-interview-2022.md, 2026-04-18]

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