Investment & Economics Wiki

Fred Harrison

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Summary

Fred Harrison is a UK economist and land value theorist who predicted the 2007-08 financial crisis in his 2005 book Boom Bust and first articulated the 18-year cycle argument applied to UK and global data in The Power in the Land (1983). He sits within a tradition rooted in Henry George’s political economy and Homer Hoyt’s empirical land cycle research. He predicted the 1973-75 crisis as land-cycle driven (not the oil shock), as referenced in the 2026 Roadmap update. Phil Anderson holds his work as foundational. As of early 2026, Harrison was working on what he describes as his “final book” and gave an unscripted ATAA talk. He warns of a “major economic reset into and after 2026.” His new book, ‘Cheating: The Human Project and Its Betrayal’, highlights 5 major crises predicted to clash around 2028.

Key Works

Track Record

  • Predicted 1973-75 crisis as land cycle driven (not oil shock) — written in 1983
  • Predicted 2007-08 GFC in 2005
  • Warns of “major economic reset into and after 2026”
  • Forecasts five major crises to converge around 2028

Relationship to PSE

  • Phil Anderson considers Harrison’s work foundational
  • ATAA talk with Harrison was a highlight; recording available via Shepheard-Walwyn
  • Anderson (BBI April 29 2026): Harrison is “entirely correct” about the 2026 confluence, but “scares without playbook”

Key Sources

  • The Power in the Land — “The Hoyt Heist” (1983): Harrison’s foundational chapter refuting Homer Hoyt’s claim that the 18-year cycle was “eliminated.” Uses Hoyt’s own personal land deals (Fairfax County: 2,500% profit over 20 years) to prove the cycle was alive in the post-WWII period. Also covers REITs as the new cycle-amplifying vehicle. [Source: harrison-power-in-the-land-hoyt-heist.pdf]
  • MoneyWeek Interview — “House Prices Will Peak in 2026” (April 2022): Harrison predicts 2026 house price peak as end of 14-year cycle within the 18-year business cycle. Promoting his book WeAreRent. Full content paywalled.
  • Ultimate Land Cycle Prediction (sS2WLgXKNr8 transcript): Harrison reaffirms 2026 peak in conversation with Katherine. COVID accelerated rather than derailed UK house prices. 2024–2026 = “final rocket phase.” Two falsifying conditions: Putin goes nuclear OR China invades Taiwan. [Source: 2026-05-03-harrison-ultimate-prediction-transcript-2026]
  • Economic Meltdown Q&A (B6dCePjjYqA transcript): Harrison defends unearned rent thesis against libertarian critique: “property owners acquire revenue that they do not work for” — this is the core Georgist claim expressed in contemporary language. [Source: 2026-05-03-harrison-economic-meltdown-qa-transcript]
  • Daily Renter 2025: Harrison’s Buffett/HomeServices correlation — Berkshire’s exit from real estate aligned with Harrison’s 2026 prediction. [Source: 2026-05-03-harrison-daily-renter-2025]

Contradictions & Open Questions

  • Harrison’s falsifying conditions for 2026 (Putin goes nuclear OR China invades Taiwan) were stated in 2024-25; the Feb 2026 Iran war does not appear to meet his threshold — but does geopolitical escalation of this magnitude affect the cycle timing?
  • Harrison predicts a land-cycle collapse; Anderson argues the K-wave masking effect will moderate it (“not like the early 1980s”). Their forecasts are directionally aligned but differ in severity.

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