Summary
The September 9, 2026 US Watchlist PDF holds two entries — the thinnest in the documented series, down from three on September 2. XAR (Aerospace & Defense ETF, buy >18.50) and COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF, buy >$95). The US pipeline is now a pure two-name dollar-bearish + copper-bullish expression, with the defense leg retired and no US equity setups at all. [Source: PSE, Current-US-watchlist-September-9-2026]
Key Claims
- US Watchlist holds 2 entries as of September 9, 2026: UDN (buy >95, NYSE Arca). — confidence: high
- XAR removed (buy >$295 level retired) — no corresponding entry on the Mex Pete Model Portfolio sheet, so the setup was pulled rather than triggered. — confidence: high
- Buy levels for UDN and COPX are unchanged from July 28 / August 4 / September 2. — confidence: high
- No short levels listed on this sheet (it is a long-side buy-trigger watchlist only). — confidence: high
Watchlist Changes
- REMOVE: XAR (SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF) — buy level >$295 retired without a portfolio entry. [Source: PSE, Current-US-watchlist-September-9-2026]
- UDN and COPX levels unchanged. No ADDs. [Source: PSE, Current-US-watchlist-September-9-2026]
Concepts Referenced
Emma’s Analysis
XAR’s quiet removal is the third US setup retired without a trade in six weeks — after DRS on September 2 and, now, XAR. Both were defense/aerospace names (DRS was the Leonardo DRS contractor setup added on July 28 with the >295 was added in Gann #21 on the war-profiteering thesis). The pattern is consistent: the defense leg of the US watchlist has been dismantled name by name, leaving the US pipeline with only UDN (dollar-bearish) and COPX (copper). That is a meaningful shift in the PSE long-side thesis — the late-cycle breakouts Anderson is still waiting on are now exclusively commodity and currency, with no equity-sector expression left on the US list. The aerospace/defense call from Gann #21 (>$295 was a historically high bar) simply never triggered; per the Winners Curse Phase read, setups that require the most extreme conditions are the ones that fail as the cycle matures.
Two entries is the thinnest US Watchlist in the documented series (prior low: three, on September 2). Combined with the AUS Watchlist’s VTM + new WIRE addition on the same date, the whole PSE pending-setup pipeline is 4 names: UDN, COPX (US) and VTM, WIRE (AUS) — and two of those four are copper-miner expressions (COPX, WIRE), one is dollar-bearish (UDN), and one is lithium/metals (VTM). In 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle terms, the pipeline has collapsed to a single macro bet: hard assets up, US dollar down, with US equities simply absent from the long-side book.
The counterpoint is that a thin watchlist is not necessarily bearish — it can mean the opportunities were consumed (DBA, CGS, SFR, AME, IEFA all graduated in the last seven weeks). But with AME now stopped out (see 2026-09-18-mex-pete-portfolio-snapshot) and the graduated book down to four positions, the pipeline’s thinness means the portfolio would need to rebuild from a much weaker base if the commodity complex rolls over. [Source: PSE, Current-US-watchlist-September-9-2026]
Cross-references: 2026-09-02-us-watchlist-snapshot, 2026-09-09-aus-watchlist-snapshot, 2026-09-18-mex-pete-portfolio-snapshot, 2026-08-04-us-watchlist-snapshot