Summary
The September 4, 2026 Mex Pete Model Portfolio PDF is a price-mark update with no portfolio actions: all 5 active long positions (DBA, CGS, SFR, AME, IEFA) remain open — no additions, exits, or stop changes. The headline development is that AME (Ametek) recovered from 233 stop — to 1.20, defusing the imminent stop-out risk flagged in the Sep 2 snapshot. IEFA is back in profit (99.88 entry), SFR trimmed its loss to −10.2% (3.125), while DBA slipped to 29.49 entry). The 5-position commodity/resource-heavy posture now spans 4 consecutive PDFs (Aug 28 → Sep 4), the most diversified sustained stance in the portfolio’s documented history. [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-4-2026]
Key Claims
- No portfolio actions in this snapshot: 0 adds, 0 exits, 0 stop adjustments across all 5 active positions and all historical rows #6–#36 (unchanged from Sep 2). — confidence: high
- AME long: current price 231.32) — recovered above its 1.20; still −7.8% unrealized from the $254.05 entry. — confidence: high
- IEFA long: current price 99.34) — back above the $99.88 entry, +1.1% unrealized. — confidence: high
- SFR long: current price 22.25) — underwater −10.2% from the $24.88 entry, essentially unchanged. — confidence: high
- CGS long: current price 3.08) — +3.1% from the $3.03 entry. — confidence: high
- DBA long: current price 29.49) — slipped below the 27.50. — confidence: high
- Underwater count improves from 3 of 5 (Sep 2) to 2 of 5 (Sep 4: SFR, DBA); positions above stop/water: AME, CGS, IEFA. — confidence: high
Watchlist Changes
- None. No ADD / REMOVE / RAISE STOP / EXIT actions in this PDF. Latest actions remain: DBA ADD (Sep 2), CGS/SFR graduations (Aug 26), AME/IEFA ADDs + PLTR EXIT (Aug 5). No new US Watchlist PDF since Sep 2; no new AUS Watchlist PDF since Aug 26. [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-4-2026]
Concepts Referenced
Emma’s Analysis
The most important line in this otherwise quiet PDF is AME’s 233 stop (55.39/unit in August) and keeps the 5-position structure intact. That said, the stop is still only $1.20 away — AME remains a hair-trigger position, and the portfolio’s realized-loss tally is one bad tape away from deepening.
The bigger signal is persistence: four consecutive snapshots (Aug 28 → Sep 4) at 5 positions, weighted 3-of-5 toward agriculture and ASX resources. This is the longest sustained multi-position stance since the June 9 peak-exposure date, and it confirms the Commodity Supercycle rotation thesis at the top of the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle: Anderson is deploying into hard assets, not US equity breakouts, in the final window before the midterms. DBA slipping below entry within 48 hours of entry is noise, not signal — the agriculture re-entry thesis (watchlist trigger >27.50.
Watch item: no fresh US/AUS watchlist PDFs since Sep 2/Aug 26 means the next graduations — if any — will likely arrive with the next Gann market update. If the midterm-window Gann time counts (DJI week before Nov 3, Brent week of Oct 26, per 2026-09-10-bbi-september-2026-qa) mark reversals, the 5-position book is fully exposed to it. [Source: PSE, Mex-Pete-Model-Portfolio-September-4-2026]
Cross-references: 2026-09-02-mex-pete-portfolio-snapshot, 2026-09-02-us-watchlist-snapshot, 2026-08-26-aus-watchlist-snapshot, 2026-09-10-bbi-september-2026-qa