Gann #20 — Intermarket Correlations, Breadth, and CMG Stop Hit (30 June 2026)
5 min read
Summary
Phil Anderson’s Gann #20 email (June 30, 2026) focuses on intermarket correlations — how price movements in one sector reflect in another — and reports a notable improvement in market breadth, a shift from the persistent divergence narrative of April–June. The email’s key portfolio update is that CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill) has hit its stop, exiting the last active position in the Mex Pete Model Portfolio. The portfolio now holds zero active positions for the first time in its documented history. Anderson also increases emphasis on the “red line” (bullish) 2026 Roadmap scenario, while still expecting sideways/volatile price action into Q4.
Key Claims
2026-06-30-gann-20-intermarket-breadth-cmg-stop (2026-06-30): CMG short position stopped out. “I do have one portfolio update today, which is our short position in Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) hitting our stop, so be sure you have exited that position.” The Mex Pete Model Portfolio now holds zero active positions — the first complete clearance in its documented history. — confidence: high
2026-06-30-gann-20-intermarket-breadth-cmg-stop (2026-06-30): Intermarket correlations as an analytical framework. Anderson systematises the approach: USD weakness → commodity/commodity-currency strength; S&P 500 / oil negative correlation; Bitcoin / software stocks (IGV) positive correlation with Bitcoin often leading. “Chart analysis can also be an advantage when it comes to understanding intermarket relationships.” — confidence: high
2026-06-30-gann-20-intermarket-breadth-cmg-stop (2026-06-30): Bitcoin/IGV correlation as a leading indicator for software stocks. “Bitcoin has also done a good job at tipping key turning points in software stocks.” Bitcoin often turns just before a move in the broader software sector (iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF, IGV). With Bitcoin bouncing around 60,000,MSFT′s350 support level is in play — “You might not think Bitcoin has anything to do with MSFT’s price action, but I would keep an eye on both.” — confidence: high
2026-06-30-gann-20-intermarket-breadth-cmg-stop (2026-06-30): MAGS vs RSP divergence — Mag 7 pulling back while average S&P stock makes new highs. “While the Mag 7 are collectively pulling back, the average S&P stock is moving out to new highs.” This is the inverse of the breadth divergence pattern dominant from April through late June — “that’s another sign that breadth has been more bullish lately, which is a good sign for the market. Breadth tends to lag into major market peaks.” — confidence: high
2026-06-30-gann-20-intermarket-breadth-cmg-stop (2026-06-30): Breadth improvement shifts Roadmap emphasis toward red line. “With breadth becoming more positive again while financial conditions remain loose overall, we may need to put a larger emphasis on the red line in our 2026 Roadmap below.” The red line (bullish 2006-style path) still points to sideways/volatile price action into Q4, but is “plotting the more bullish path for the year that we’ve seen unfold so far.” — confidence: high
2026-06-30-gann-20-intermarket-breadth-cmg-stop (2026-06-30): Lack of follow-through on short positions as market feedback. “A lack of good follow-through on short positions is another form of feedback from the market you shouldn’t ignore.” Anderson frames the CMG stop-out not just as a trade loss but as a signal about the broader market’s resilience. — confidence: high
Notable Quotes
“Chart analysis can also be an advantage when it comes to understanding intermarket relationships, or how price movements in one sector could be reflected in another.”
“You might not think Bitcoin has anything to do with MSFT’s price action, but I would keep an eye on both.”
“While the Mag 7 are collectively pulling back, the average S&P stock is moving out to new highs. That’s another sign that breadth has been more bullish lately, which is a good sign for the market. Breadth tends to lag into major market peaks.”
“A lack of good follow-through on short positions is another form of feedback from the market you shouldn’t ignore.”
Mex Pete References
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill): Short position stopped out. Entry was 28.74 (Gann #15, June 5), stop was 33.00. Exit triggered late June 2026. The portfolio is now fully in cash — zero active positions.
PLTR (Palantir): Remains the only live short setup from the Short Watchlist (confirmed in Gann #19, stop $135). Not mentioned in this email but remains the portfolio’s sole active trade signal per the June 26 Short Watchlist PDF.
Stock Picks / Signals
Ticker
Action
Entry
Stop
Status
Notes
CMG
Short (stopped)
$28.74
$33.00
❌ Stopped ~Jun 30
Last Mex Pete Portfolio position exited; portfolio now fully cash
Not mentioned in this email; remains the sole active trade from Short Watchlist
Intermarket Correlation Matrix (as of June 30, 2026)
Pair
Correlation
Direction
Notes
USD / Commodities
Negative
Weaker USD → stronger commodities
”Commodities are mostly priced and traded in dollars”
USD / Gold & Silver
Negative
Weaker USD → stronger precious metals
Peak in USD Index in 2nd half of cycle drives commodities
S&P 500 / Oil
Negative
”Strong negative correlation”
Recently in play
Bitcoin / Software (IGV)
Positive (leading)
BTC turns first, software follows
”Bitcoin often turning just before a move in the broader software sector”
MAGS (Mag 7) / RSP (Equal Weight)
Recently negative
Mag 7 pulling back while average stock rallies
Inverse of April–June breadth divergence pattern
Notes
This email represents a notable tonal shift from the persistent breadth-divergence narrative of April through late June. Anderson explicitly states breadth has become “more bullish lately” and that the average S&P stock is making new highs — the first such positive breadth observation in the Gann email series since the divergence pattern emerged in April.
The CMG stop-out completes the portfolio’s contraction from 5 positions (June 9) → 3 (June 16) → 1 (June 26) → 0 (June 30). Anderson frames the lack of follow-through on shorts as market feedback rather than a personal failure — consistent with PSE’s discipline of reading price action as information about the cycle’s state.
The increased emphasis on the red-line Roadmap scenario (bullish 2006 analogue) is significant because it suggests the late-June solstice window may not produce the peak that the grey-line scenario implied. However, Anderson still expects “sideways and volatile price action into the fourth quarter.”
Anderson’s intermarket framework systematises relationships that have appeared piecemeal in earlier emails (USD/commodities in Gann #17–18, Bitcoin/liquidity in Gann #14–16) into a named analytical approach.