Summary
Darren Wilson (writing for Phil) updates the private credit collapse narrative. Blue Owl’s exit triggered an avalanche: Blackstone BCRED facing redemption surge, Black Rock TCP 11-11.30), with fourth test expected to break through.
Key Claims
- PSE clock turned to “3pm” in the week of March 23 — the final frantic peak in real estate activity. — confidence: high
- Private credit collapse accelerating: Blue Owl → Blackstone BCRED redemption surge → Black Rock TCP $25M zero. — confidence: high
- Reverse Mex Pete (descending triangle) visible on ASX:CCP (Credit Corp) — lower highs, triple floor at ~$11-11.30. — confidence: high
- “Fourth time usually goes through” on the descending triangle support. — confidence: medium
- Claude AI obliterated SaaS software company valuations, triggering private credit stress on software loans. — confidence: high
- Private credit had outsized positions in listed software stocks (Bloomberg January 2026). — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- ASX:CCP will break below $11-11.30 floor on fourth test. — status: pending
- “Be First, Be Smarter, or Cheat” moment for private credit has passed — we are now in the “every man for themselves” phase. — status: pending
Concepts Referenced
Notable Quotes
“The PSE clock on our website turned to 3pm last week. The final frantic peak in real estate activity.”
“We are now approaching the everyman/woman for themselves moment, or in other words where the outright cheating on redemptions and margin calls begins.”