BBI Gold Coast Session Part 2 — Boom Bust Insiders Live
Summary
Continuation of the Gold Coast live session. Phil transitions from economic theory into the historical evidence for the 18-year real estate cycle: US public land sales 1800–1926 peaking every 18 years (1818, 1836, 1854, 1872, 1888, 1908, 1926). He discusses how he discovered this independently in 1993–1994 by going to libraries and ordering US history books by fax. He covers the UK/US cycle post-WWII, his 2004 prediction of the 2008 GFC, Fred Harrison’s role, and Phil’s property clock (24-hour clock showing cycle phases). Session also covers risk management, the COVID lockdowns critique, and Q&A.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| US public land sales peaked every 18 years from 1800 to 1926: 1818, 1836, 1854, 1856 (Chicago), 1872, 1888, 1908, 1926 (Florida) | High |
| Phil first read Fred Harrison’s 1983 “Power in the Land” in 1991, confirming the 18-year cycle | High |
| Homer Hoyt’s 1932 doctoral thesis “100 Years of Land Values in Chicago” = foundational empirical basis | High |
| Phil’s property clock: 24 phases, cycle starts from low (rents improve, then prices, then building, then boom, then peak) | High |
| Phil predicted 2008 GFC in June 2004, published in UK Money Week magazine | High |
| Phil predicted Singapore would recover fastest from 2008 (front page Straits Times Feb 2009) | High |
| COVID lockdowns = greatest failure of risk management in modern history | Medium |
Key Historical Cycle Dates Documented
| Period | Low | Peak | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Post-WWII US | 1955 | 1973 | 18 years |
| US 1970s–1980s | 1973–1975 | 1989 | ~16 years |
| Last full cycle | 1989–1992 | 2006–2007 | 17 years |
| Current cycle | 2011–2012 | 2026 (forecast) | 14–15 years |
Phil: “You could never been shorter than 17 years. You add 17 years, it’s going to take you to 2025. Never been longer than 21. That’s going to take you through about a couple of years after that.”
The Property Clock (Phil’s System)
Based on Homer Hoyt’s 20 points, adapted by Phil into a 24-phase circular diagram:
- 12 o’clock (start): Recovery begins from cycle low. Rents improve, people need somewhere to live.
- 3 o’clock: Net rents rise → higher prices for established buildings
- 6 o’clock: Cheaper to build new → developers back in business; land prices moving
- 9 o’clock: Credit growth; banks pushing loans; easy money
- 11 o’clock: Mid-cycle slowdown (2020 for current cycle)
- 12 o’clock again (new): Land boom, world’s tallest buildings, complaints about property tax
- 2 o’clock: Real estate activity frenetic → 2026 forecast
Q&A Highlights
On risk management: Phil: “The single best thing you can learn is risk management. If you’re in the stock market, most fund managers are looking for companies growing their earnings. This year a dollar, next year $2 → PE halved at same price → buy.”
On COVID: Phil: “If I’m not a conspiracy theorist on COVID. The major failing is risk management. Life is everything is a risk. The best thing you can ever learn to do is to manage risk.”
On the winner’s curse: “If you know the cycle, the worst time to be going all in is in the winner’s curse phase — the final two years of the cycle.”
On current position (2022): “We are now in the boom. How high that boom goes will depend on the amount of credit that’s created by the banking establishment. The worst time to be going all in is in what Harrison called the winner’s curse phase.”
Notable Quotes
“I found that the number of land sales peaked every 18 years: 1818, 1836, 1854, 1856 in Chicago, 1872 again in Chicago, 1888, 1908, and it peaked again 1926 in Florida. Every 18 years. I thought, wow.” — Phil Anderson
“In June 2004, I told all my then subscribers that the cycle would run to completion. It would be in fever pitch by 2007 and leading to a credit event to unwind in 2008.” — Phil Anderson
“I was published on the front cover of UK Money Week magazine demonstrating how that was. Then February 2009, I was on the front cover of Singapore Straits Times. And I said Singapore would recover quickest because they were a great trading nation.” — Phil Anderson
“I got that from Homer Hoyt and Fred Harrison. It was original in the sense that I put it into a circle so that I could understand it.” — Phil Anderson (on the property clock)