Investment & Economics Wiki

Akhil Patel

4 min read

Summary

Akhil Patel is PSE’s senior analyst and co-author of subscriber emails. He writes detailed market analysis applying the PSE framework — particularly Bitcoin cycles, global liquidity analysis (drawing on Michael Howell’s Global Liquidity Index research), sector rotation, and the annual Roadmap updates. He manages the 18.6 Strategic Investment Portfolio via Oakleigh Financial. His origin story: his family business suffered in the 1990s and 2008 recessions, and he “refused to accept the conventional wisdom that these events could not be forecast in advance” — PSE’s tagline is “remember the future.” He met with Phil in Jakarta in February 2026 to review the 2026 Roadmap.

Key Contributions

  • Bitcoin cycle framework: 4-year halving analysis, liquidity linkage (drawing on Michael Howell’s work)
  • Global liquidity analysis using Michael Howell’s Global Liquidity Indexes
  • Sector rotation and HALO stock thesis
  • Roadmap forecast vs. actual tracking
  • Private credit systemic risk identification (2022 warnings)
  • ASX BNKS (bank ETF) as portfolio mainstay

Track Record

  • Bitcoin: predicted Sept/Oct 2025 peak (May 2023 email), confirmed above $120k
  • Bitcoin: predicted ~120k+ (slightly exceeded)
  • Roadmap: Feb 2026 pause/dip called correctly
  • Identified rotation from US tech to European/Asian markets early
  • Gold run lasted “longer than expected” before correcting
  • 2026-04-29 BBI: Framed latest Anthropic LLM launch as “this cycle’s iPhone-2007 moment” — agentic AI in infancy but clear path to driving next cycle. 5% of US GDP is healthcare billing admin — AI will eliminate it. Copper called as done (double-top). Gold sideways 64-week consistent with post-2006. Bitcoin: another leg down then buying opportunity; October 2026 low. [Source: BBI Q&A April 29 2026]
  • 2026-05-27 BBI: Reframed the “where is the euphoria?” question via the K-shape: “Flows of investment volume this cycle by some order of magnitude has dwarfed anything we’ve seen in previous cycles” — concentrated in AI/semiconductor multiples, crypto, and Polymarket. Sentiment doesn’t have to feel the same for the cycle to be repeating. Bitcoin late-2026 low on track: 17-week down / 17-week sideways structure forming a bear flag without a 50% retrace. Two-scenario fork for what a late-2026 low signals (post-peak reflation vs. final-credit-spigot). Gold: peak not yet seen — expects a 2008–2011-style sideways-then-rise pattern; in tension with Phil’s “commodity runs are over in direction” reading. Forecast NASDAQ Q3 curves not particularly upward; from October the curves turn up. Markets back at all-time highs globally (DAX, CAC, FTSE, Nikkei). Private credit filling banking gaps + Nvidia vendor-financing reminiscent of late-1980s Japan. [Source: BBI Q&A May 27 2026]

Events / Appearances

  • 2026-05-27 | BBI Q&A May 2026 (from NYC) with Phil Anderson and Cathy Stacey — K-shape framing, Bitcoin bear-flag thesis, NASDAQ roadmap Q3 outlook. Source page
  • 2026-05-18 | BBB Webinar Q&A recording released — Akhil fielded subscriber questions on gold, commodities, recessions, and real estate. Source page (video at https://youtu.be/YUT0xODY0i4; full content pending transcription)
  • 2026-05-31 | Meet & Greet — Orlando, FL (255 S Orange Ave, 10am–4pm, $100). Source page
  • 2026-06-13 | Meet & Greet — London (The Wesley Euston, 10am–4pm, £72). Source page
  • 2026-04-29 | BBI Q&A Session with Phil Anderson announcement

Background / Public Profile

  • Director of Property Sharemarket Economics (PSE) — investment research service
  • Previously branded as theascendantstrategy.com (pre-PSE)
  • Active on LinkedIn, YouTube (@PropertySharemarketEconomics)
  • Early UK cycle education appearance (2017): described as “one of the world’s leading experts on the property cycle” on the Property Geek Podcast [Source: 2026-05-03-patel-property-geek-podcast-2017]
  • PSE framework extends to Australia via Darren Wilson; cited in Daily Mail Australia (2026) for Australian cycle analysis [Source: 2026-05-03-daily-mail-australia-2026]

Style

  • Analytical, data-driven, historical parallel focused
  • Strong on liquidity analysis and macro timing
  • Provides detailed charts and percentage calculations

Contradictions & Open Questions

  • Patel’s gold call: “Gold run lasted longer than expected before correcting” — the 64-week sideways thesis was originally surfaced by PSE at BBI April 29 2026. Attribution and origination should be tracked.
  • Patel uses Michael Howell’s Global Liquidity Index as the foundational liquidity measure — but PSE has not explicitly documented the Howell methodology vs. PSE’s own M2/bank reserves approach. How closely do they track?

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