Kondratieff Wave (K-Wave)
Definition
The Kondratieff Wave (K-wave) is a long-term (~50–60 year) economic cycle identified by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff in the 1920s. It describes recurring patterns of expansion and contraction in capitalist economies, driven by technological innovation waves, capital investment cycles, and commodity price cycles.
Key Characteristics
- Duration: Approximately 50–60 years (some analysts argue 45–70 years)
- Phases: Typically described as Spring (expansion), Summer (plateau), Autumn (stagnation/speculation), Winter (contraction)
- Mechanism: Driven by major technological innovations that create new industries, saturate, then fade
- Historical peaks: ~1873, ~1929, ~1974, ~2026 (PSE forecast)
PSE / Anderson-Patel Framework
Phil Anderson and Akhil Patel reference the K-wave as a macro overlay to the 18.6-year real estate cycle. Key insights from BBI sessions:
- K-wave peaks coincide with real estate cycle peaks: The world’s major powers are “at loggerheads” at K-wave tops, and there’s always a risk of war
- The current K-wave is peaking around 2026–2027: This aligns with the 18.6-year real estate cycle peak from the 2012 land price low
- Two cycles declining simultaneously (K-wave + 18.6-year) could amplify the post-2026 downturn
- K-wave winter characteristics: Debt deflation, currency crises, geopolitical conflict, social upheaval
Supporting Evidence (from BBI sources)
- Phil (June 2023): “The K-wave would be peaking. And we know at the top of each K-wave the world’s powers have been at loggerheads, and there’s always a chance of war coming.”
- September 2023: “We’re coming into the peak of the K-wave in 2027 if that’s still on track and then down after that”
- Akhil mentions K-wave as context for why the post-2026 downturn could be more severe than a normal 18.6-year cycle trough
- Australia: BBI discussion noted the Olympics effect (2032 Brisbane) and other infrastructure could cushion Australian K-wave effects
Relationship to the 18.6-Year Cycle
- The K-wave operates at a ~3-cycle macro level (approximately 3 × 18.6 = ~56 years)
- At K-wave peaks, the 18.6-year real estate cycle peak is amplified
- K-wave winters historically correlate with major land price collapses (1873 Panic, 1929 Great Depression, 1974–1982 stagflation, potentially post-2026)
Kondratyev vs. Kondratieff Spelling
PSE materials use both spellings; “Kondratyev” is the Russian transliteration; “Kondratieff” is the standard English rendering.
Key Sources
- 2021-12-01-bbi-december-2021 — first mention of post-2026 K-wave implications
- 2022-07-01-bbi-july-2022 — crypto as K-wave/currency crisis hedge
- 2023-09-07-bbi-september-2023 — K-wave peak and Nasdaq secular cycles
- 2023-12-21-bbi-december-2023 — “two cycles coming down” for Australia
- 2026-01-22-bbi-january-2026 — K-wave + 18.6-year + North Node Aquarius convergence
Visual Evidence
These slides illustrate the Kondratieff Long Wave framework and its commodity price cycles.
Kondratieff waves chart — historical data mapping of long-wave cycles with dates.
Source: PSE Video
Kondratieff waves explained — slide with presenter commentary.
Source: PSE Video
Kondratiev wave graph — speaker presenting the long-wave economic framework.
Source: PSE Video
Kondratieff wave graph — visual representation of the commodity/price cycle.
Source: PSE Video
Nikolai Kondratiev and commodity prices — context slide on the originator.
Source: PSE Video
Long waves in prices (England) — historical price series illustrating K-wave cycles.
Source: PSE Video
Speaker presentation — graph of Kondratieff waves with economic commentary.
Source: PSE Video
Commodity price cycles — Kondratieff cycle mapped against commodity prices.
Source: PSE Video