BBI December 2023 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
December 2023 year-end session. Akhil explains why economists perpetually call for recession and miss the cycle: they don’t understand how rising land prices spread economic activity and make the economy more resilient until cycle’s end. The economy has adjusted to post-COVID reality: high wages, labor shortages, people demanding different work conditions. Phil and Darren discuss multiple charts: iron ore, copper (Sandfire near new highs), gold (Gold Road Resources trigger: close above $2), US dollar (monthly chart shows lower highs at tops in 1984, 2002, 2022 — all second-half cycle peaks). Phil also discusses Gann’s “Tunnel Through the Air” predictions about the Mississippi flooding in 1927 and how the April 26 planetary formation repeats in 2026.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Rising land prices spread economic activity and prevent recessions — economists miss this | High |
| The economy becomes vulnerable to recession only when land costs have squeezed out business expansion (end of cycle) | High |
| Commodities: 2023 = important cyclical low; years ending in three in 30-year cycle consistently produce commodity lows | High |
| US dollar: second-half of real estate cycle = dollar peaks (1984, 2002, 2022 were all tops) | High |
| April 26, 2026: planetary formation echoes 1927 Mississippi flood conditions (Saturn, Jupiter, Neptune) — Gann’s forecast | Medium |
| ”Plato and the Quran” book shows Biblical numerical codes = planetary timing numbers | Low–Medium |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| US dollar in sustained decline → good for commodities | 2024 | Confirmed |
| Commodities turning up from 2023 lows | 2024 | Confirmed |
| Nikkei makes run at 38,000 (will generate “Japan is back” stories) | 2024 | Confirmed (Nikkei broke 40k in 2024) |
| 2024 strong second-half (strong finish) after election-year volatility mid-year | 2024 | Confirmed |
| April 26, 2026: Mississippi flooding risk / potential market impact | April 2026 | Pending |
| Cotton price may spike in 2026 if Mississippi flooding materializes | 2026 | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- 2023 roadmap retrospective: all key patterns confirmed (dates 15th of each month)
- 2024 forecast: up into Q1/Q2, possible sideways/down in May–August (election uncertainty), strong finish
- Akhil’s 2024 curves: gray line (60-year cycle) most bullish, others show similar up trend
- May 2024 = 30 weeks from October 2023 low = key turning point
- Phil: Gann’s monthly charts now correspond to weekly; weekly to daily (markets much faster)
Property & Stock Guidance
- Iron ore (AUD): Near $200/ton; watch BHP, FMG, Rio Tinto
- Copper (Sandfire SFR.AX): Close above $7 monthly = buy signal; cup-and-handle pattern
- Gold (USD): Near all-time high; watch for break above $2,000 and hold
- Gold Road Resources (GOR.AX): Close above $2 monthly = buy signal
- US dollar (DXY): Monthly chart shows consistent second-half cycle declines; expect sustained fall
- Japan Nikkei: 38,000 target; many stories about “Japan is back” coming
- US homebuilders: All-time highs; set-and-forget for 2–3 years (potentially double/triple)
Notable Quotes
“When you get land prices that are high and are increasing, the market is looking for cheaper land…that means that the economy is starting to build in new places, which means construction is a big part of the economy, and you don’t tend to get recessions.” — Akhil Patel
“The planetary patterns that caused the Mississippi to flood are going to repeat in April of 2026. Now, I have no idea whether the Mississippi will flood…but there is suggestions that the weather in America around December 2025 and January 2026 is going to be really cold.” — Phil Anderson
“If the spring rains are late, and we’ll know that on April 26, 2026, if the spring rains are late because of the planetary formation, I tell you, if the flood comes, it’s going to be of biblical proportions.” — Phil Anderson