BBI September 2023 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
September 2023 session. Kathy opens with Gann time count analysis: 180 days, 420 days, 300 days from key 2022 lows all converging on early September — confirming the timing of a significant market pause. Phil joins from New York (early morning, just saw the Neil Diamond Broadway musical). Key topics: China’s Xi is “sowing the seeds of his own demise” (centralization, property market problems); Akhil argues stop reading the news — it’s manufactured narrative. UK news focuses on falling property prices but misses the 5%+ rent increases. New UK lenders entering with 20–30 year fixed mortgages. Jazz Age scenario outlined: Nasdaq could run well past 2026 (like Nasdaq took over S&P leadership).
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| 180 days/weeks/420 days from 2022 lows converging = September 2023 is key market pivot point | High |
| UK property “falling” is misleading — barely 5% below Aug 2022 peak; rents up 5%+ | High |
| Higher rents eventually capitalize into higher house prices — this is the transmission mechanism | High |
| China faces severe difficulties from ~2028 (30-year echo of 1998 crisis) | Medium |
| ”Stop Reading the News” — financial news is manufactured narrative, not signal | High |
| Nasdaq may have begun its own 18-year secular bull in 2017 and could run to mid-next-cycle | Medium |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 is an important pivot/low | Sep 2023 | Confirmed (markets turned) |
| China max pessimism around 2030 (30-year echo) | 2028–2030 | Pending |
| US dollar starts sustained decline — good for commodities and global trade | 2023–2026 | Confirmed (2024 dollar weakness) |
| Nasdaq potentially runs past 2026 (Jazz Age scenario) — quick recovery after downturn | Post-2026 | Pending |
| UK rents driving house prices higher in 2024 | 2024 | Confirmed |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- 180 weeks from Feb 2020 top = August/September 2023 key pause (1 by 1 angle from 2020 low hit)
- “Fourth attempt” breakout pattern: markets break up on third or fourth attempt at resistance
- Nikkei Japan: attempting serious breakout above 30,000+ → watch for confirmation
- Gold in AUD hitting all-time highs while USD gold at 2000 resistance
- Iron ore in AUD above $200/ton = quietly bullish
- Phil: “The lineup is just so good. I get nervous when it’s this obvious.”
Property & Stock Guidance
- Gold (AUD): All-time highs; USD gold watch for break above $2,000 and hold
- Iron ore: AUD terms quietly bullish; Rio Tinto/BHP beneficiaries
- Gold stocks (GOR Australia): Close above $2/share monthly = buy signal
- Sandfire Resources (SFR.AX): Copper proxy; close above $7 monthly = buy
- US homebuilders: All close to or at all-time highs; Toll Brothers, D.R. Horton confirmed bullish
- Lithium (prior darlings): On their knees now; avoid
- Japan (Nikkei): Breaking 30,000 → 38,000 in sights (all-time high from 1990)
Notable Quotes
“In the last 12 months, the number of conversations I’ve had about [investing]…has been unbelievable. And not just from older members of the team. It’s from youngsters and everyone. For me, this is a bit of an anecdote about where we are in the cycle.” — Akhil Patel
“Stop Reading the News [book]. Most financial news is manufactured — it’s designed to create a narrative, not inform.” — Akhil Patel
“China is facing its 30-year echo of 1998. Xi is sowing the seeds of his own demise.” — Phil Anderson