Summary
Cathy Stacey’s August 2026 BBI Q&A recording covers Japanese 30-year bond yields hitting all-time highs, with an RSI divergence signal (lower highs on RSI as yields make higher highs — typically projecting future chart weakness). Key time counts: July 2026 marks 120 months (10 years) from the July 2016 extreme low, and September 2026 marks 84 months (7 years) from the September 2019 higher low — whether these invoke a reaction is being watched. Akhil Patel works through sector performance analysis, with resources, oil, bonds, and “crafty accounting” all discussed. The September BBI date is TBA. Full transcript pending — PSE subscription expired, YouTube video URL not yet accessible.
Key Claims
- Japanese 30-year bond yields at all-time highs as of August 2026. — confidence: high [Source: PSE BBI, Cathy Stacey, 2026-08-20]
- RSI (Relative Strength Index) on Japanese bond yields is showing lower highs as yields make higher highs — a bearish divergence that typically projects future chart weakness. — confidence: high [Source: PSE BBI, Cathy Stacey, 2026-08-20]
- Time count: July 2026 = 120 months from July 2016 extreme low in Japanese bond yields. — confidence: high [Source: PSE BBI, Cathy Stacey, 2026-08-20]
- Time count: September 2026 = 84 months from September 2019 higher low in Japanese bond yields. — confidence: high [Source: PSE BBI, Cathy Stacey, 2026-08-20]
- Akhil Patel works through the performance of different sectors in this session. — confidence: high [Source: PSE BBI, Cathy Stacey, 2026-08-20]
- Resources, oil, bonds, and “crafty accounting” all discussed. — confidence: high [Source: PSE BBI, Cathy Stacey, 2026-08-20]
Predictions / Forecasts
- RSI divergence on Japanese bond yields projects future chart weakness (yields may roll over) — status: pending [Source: PSE BBI, Cathy Stacey, 2026-08-20]
- Time counts at 120 months (July) and 84 months (September) may invoke a reaction in Japanese bond yields — status: pending [Source: PSE BBI, Cathy Stacey, 2026-08-20]
Concepts Referenced
- Bond Yields — Japanese 30-year yields at all-time highs; RSI divergence as technical signal
- Gann Time Counts — 120-month count from July 2016 low; 84-month count from September 2019 low
- Market Breadth Divergence — RSI divergence (lower highs vs higher yields) as technical weakness signal
- Sector Rotation — Akhil’s sector performance analysis; resources, oil, bonds discussed
- 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle — late-cycle context for rising bond yields and sector rotation
Notable Quotes
- “Below is the Japanese 30 year bond yields, noting the all-time highs.” — Cathy Stacey [Source: PSE BBI, 2026-08-20]
- “I note, just by doing a couple of quick time counts that July was 120 months since the extreme low in July 2016 and September will be 84 months since the higher low in September 2019.” — Cathy Stacey [Source: PSE BBI, 2026-08-20]
- “The RSI is showing lower highs as the yields get higher. This typically projects future chart weakness. Let’s see.” — Cathy Stacey [Source: PSE BBI, 2026-08-20]
Emma’s Analysis
This session reinforces the late-cycle bond yield thesis central to PSE’s framework. Japanese 30-year yields at all-time highs echo the US 30-year Treasury breaking above 5% earlier in 2026 (see 2026-05-19-gann-12-market-update-may-2026). Rising long-bond yields at end-of-cycle confirm the credit tightening that terminates the 18.6-year cycle — as Phil Anderson has repeatedly stated: “This is how real estate cycles end – in tight money conditions and rising longer-term rates” [Source: PSE, 2026-02-16].
The RSI divergence on Japanese yields is a notable technical signal. Cathy’s observation that RSI is making lower highs while yields make higher highs is the same divergence methodology applied in PSE’s market breadth analysis (see Market Breadth Divergence). The 120-month (10-year) and 84-month (7-year) time counts from the 2016 and 2019 bond yield lows are consistent with Gann’s time-count methodology — these are Fibonacci-adjacent numbers (84 = 7×12, 120 = 10×12) that often mark turning points. If yields roll over at these time counts, it could signal a flight-to-safety phase as the cycle enters its terminal phase.
Akhil’s sector performance analysis continues the rotation theme tracked since early 2026: capital rotating from technology/growth into resources, industrials, and banking (HALO stocks). The discussion of “crafty accounting” may relate to the corporate reporting concerns flagged in prior sources about late-cycle financial engineering.
Note: Full transcript not available — PSE subscription expired (BBIMG #103678), YouTube video URL inaccessible. This source is based on Cathy Stacey’s companion email content, which includes the key data points, time counts, and chart analysis. Once the subscription is renewed, the full BBI transcript should be ingested to capture Phil and Akhil’s detailed discussion.