Summary
Gann #18 (June 22, 2026) is Phil Anderson’s solstice-week update, dominated by the macro implications of Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting as chairman. The meeting delivered a hawkish surprise: nine of 18 FOMC members now see at least one rate hike before year-end, and Warsh emphasised “price stability” throughout his press conference — despite the political pressure that accompanied his appointment to lower rates. The 2-year Treasury yield at 4.19% remains well above the fed funds upper range of 3.75%, confirming the bond-market signal that rate hikes are coming. Anderson frames this as the classic late-cycle mechanism: tighter monetary policy has historically brought about the end of real estate cycles, so rates and financial conditions must be watched closely — though he notes conditions currently remain loose overall. On the chart side, Bitcoin is seeing a smaller retracement higher from the critical 145. The June 22 solstice seasonal date arrives this week. The US Dollar Index has broken above the 100 level — the high end of a range going back a year — and DXY often sees trend reversals on seasonal dates and their midpoints. A reversal of the move above 100 would set up IEFA (iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF) as a Mexican Pete pattern beneficiary of a weakening dollar. Anderson explicitly draws the parallel: developed international and emerging market equities performed strongly against the U.S. at the end of the last cycle into 2008. Watchlist cleanup: RKLB, URA, and DBA removed from the US list (price weakness invalidating setups); COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF), XME (State Street SPDR Metals & Mining ETF), and CGS (Cogstate, ASX) added — all three trading near resistance inside Mexican Pete-style setups.
Key Claims
- “Nine of the 18 members on the Fed’s rate-setting committee now see at least one rate hike before year end.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “Even Warsh came across with a hawkish tone, emphasizing ‘price stability’ throughout his press conference.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “Market-implied odds now point to a rate hike happening as soon as the Fed’s meeting in September.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “At 4.19%, the 2-year is well above the upper range for fed funds at 3.75%.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “Tighter monetary policy has helped bring about the end of past real estate cycles, so we need to keep a close watch on rates and how that’s impacting financial conditions overall.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “But do note that conditions currently remain loose overall, which means that credit remains cheap and plentiful.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- Bitcoin “is seeing a smaller retracement higher from important support around the $60,000 level. This is a critical level to watch, where a breakdown would be a massive loss of support and send a signal on the outlook for liquidity.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “If that happens, keep monitoring crypto-exchange Coinbase (COIN) on the short watchlist for its own breakdown through the $145 level.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “DXY is recently seeing a break above the 100 level, which is the high end of a range going back a year.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “DXY will often see trend reversals on seasonal dates and their midpoints.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “If we see a reversal of the move above 100, then keep a close eye on the iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF (IEFA).” IEFA is “setting up in a Mexican Pete pattern.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- “Developed international and emerging market equities performed strongly against the U.S. at the end of the last cycle into 2008.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- Watchlist removals: RKLB (Rocket Lab), URA (Global X Uranium ETF), DBA (Invesco DB Agriculture Fund) — “Price weakness across all three is invalidating their chart setups which means we should focus our attention elsewhere.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
- Watchlist additions: COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF), XME (State Street SPDR Metals & Mining ETF), CGS (Cogstate, ASX) — “All three are trading near resistance inside a Mexican Pete-style setup.” — Phil Anderson — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- Rate hike as soon as September Fed meeting (market-implied) — status: ⏳ pending
- Bitcoin breakdown below $60,000 would be a “massive loss of support” and liquidity warning — status: ⏳ pending
- COIN breakdown through $145 following Bitcoin breakdown — status: ⏳ pending
- DXY reversal of the move above 100 (seasonal-date driven) — status: ⏳ pending
- IEFA Mexican Pete breakout on a weakening dollar — status: ⏳ pending
- Developed international / EM equities outperform US into cycle end (2008 repeat) — status: ⏳ pending
Notable Quotes
- “Interest rates connect everything together. Rates impact the flow of capital, construction costs, stock market valuations, and so on.”
- “Tighter monetary policy has helped bring about the end of past real estate cycles.”
- “Bitcoin is seeing a smaller retracement higher from important support around the $60,000 level. This is a critical level to watch, where a breakdown would be a massive loss of support and send a signal on the outlook for liquidity.”
- “DXY will often see trend reversals on seasonal dates and their midpoints.”
- “Developed international and emerging market equities performed strongly against the U.S. at the end of the last cycle into 2008.”
Mex Pete References
- IEFA (iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF) — setting up in a Mexican Pete pattern; watch for breakout if DXY reverses above 100
- COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) — near resistance inside a Mexican Pete setup; added to US Watchlist
- XME (State Street SPDR Metals & Mining ETF) — near resistance inside a Mexican Pete setup; added to US Watchlist
- CGS (Cogstate, ASX) — near resistance inside a Mexican Pete setup; added to AUS Watchlist
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Action | Level | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | Short watch | Break below $145 | Crypto-sector breakdown following Bitcoin |
| IEFA | Watch | Mexican Pete breakout | Dollar-reversal tailwind (unhedged int’l equity) |
| COPX | Add to US Watchlist | Near resistance | Mexican Pete setup — copper miners |
| XME | Add to US Watchlist | Near resistance | Mexican Pete setup — metals & mining |
| CGS | Add to AUS Watchlist | Near resistance | Mexican Pete setup — ASX tech |
| RKLB | Remove from US Watchlist | — | Price weakness invalidating setup |
| URA | Remove from US Watchlist | — | Price weakness invalidating setup |
| DBA | Remove from US Watchlist | — | Price weakness invalidating setup |