TL;DR
BBB Webinar #9 (recorded late April 2026) features Darren Wilson, Akhil Patel, and Phil Anderson presenting a comprehensive update on where the real estate cycle stands in 2026. They argue the cycle is “on track” — 14 years up from 2012, with the US land cycle peaking in 2026 as forecast years ago. Key indicators (home builder stocks peaking in 2024, plateauing US land prices, rising rents showing signs of decline, rampant speculation in crypto and prediction markets, Jeddah Tower construction) all confirm the late-stage position. The team covers the 2025 and 2026 Roadmap forecasts, stock picks (e.g., Linus Rare Earths +68% return), and the chaotic macro overlay (wars, trade conflicts, inflation, AI disruption) that makes cycle timing difficult but does not alter the underlying trajectory.
Key Points
Akhil Patel — Cycle Framework & Where We Are
- Cycle is 18 years: 14 up, 4 down — current cycle started 2011–2012, mid-cycle slowdown peaked in 2019, COVID recession in 2020, second half began ~2020–2021
- 2026 was always forecast as the peak of the land cycle — not all asset markets peak simultaneously; historically the stock market peaks after the land cycle (in the 1920s, quite some time after)
- Key peak-cycle indicators visible now:
- World’s tallest building under construction (Jeddah Tower, 100+ stories, >1km height)
- Trump declaring “greatest stock market in history”
- Rampant speculation: record art auction prices, prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket), crypto speculation spreading to younger generations
- Inflation resistant at the peak — money piling into property markets (residential early 2020s, now commercial real estate, data centers, logistics hubs)
- US land prices showing signs of topping: national home price index flattening; rental drops in key US cities; rising vacancies — but not yet a clear downturn
- Australia and UK property still grinding upward toward the peak — property is locational, so local markets vary
- Home builder stocks as leading indicator: D.R. Horton peaked in 2024, fell, recovered in 2025, now trending sideways with lower tops — exactly as expected at this cycle stage. In the 2006–2007 cycle, Horton peaked in 2005, well before the S&P 500 top in October 2007
- Real estate clock set at 3:00 — high property prices, slowdown in activity, increasing vacancies, approaching sustained price drops
- Central bank dilemma at peak: raise rates to fight inflation vs. lower rates to stimulate slowing growth — Fed, BoE, RBA all grappling with this
- Macro risks: ongoing Middle East conflict, US-China trade summit, trade wars, AI disruption (2026 as wake-up year), resource nationalism, migration, food scarcity, extreme weather
Phil Anderson — Education & Framework
- “PSE is often the last thing people come to” — most investors try everything else first, and most pundits/journalists don’t understand the land market, so they can’t get the timing right
- Key books: Fred Harrison’s Power in the Land (1983, forecast the 1989 UK peak), Homer Hoyt’s 100 Years of Land Values in Chicago (Olcott’s lifetime data collection), Roy Wenzlick’s The Coming Boom in Real Estate (1936, at the depression bottom)
- Anderson’s innovation: first to marry stock market and real estate cycle into a single framework — uses stock market action to read where the real estate market is heading
- Real estate clock: hours 1–11 first half (expansion), hours 13–24 second half (chaos/collapse/recovery) — published in 2013–2014 and hasn’t needed revision since
- Emphasis on emotional discipline: amateurs buy at the top, panic at the bottom — this is what causes tops and bottoms
Darren Wilson — Roadmap & Stock Picks
- 2025 Roadmap performed well: forecast an up year with a March peak and April dip — Liberation Day fall came slightly early but recovery played out as expected, strong finish to the year
- 2026 Roadmap tracking: expected up into February, pause into March — Iran bombing (late February) caused unexpected disruption but market recovered quickly, consistent with the “rip down, rip back up” pattern
- Linus Rare Earths trade: tracked from June 2025, breakout called end of June, exit at $15.50 for a 68% return in 3–4 months
- Margin lending extremely strong — consistent with late-cycle speculative behavior
Notable Quotes
“The cycle is 18 years in length. That is 14 years upwards, generally expansionary, four years of kind of chaos and collapse and recovery. The current cycle started around 2011 and 2012. We were well underway by the second half of 2012.” — Akhil Patel
“Despite all the kind of forces… the underlying cycle as far as we are concerned is that the cycle is very much on track. 2026 was the peak of the land cycle. It doesn’t necessarily mean that all asset markets peak at the same time.” — Akhil Patel
“PSE is often the last thing people come to when they’ve gone through everything else and it hasn’t worked… they come to us and recognize that yes, at the end you have to understand what the land market is. If you are reading the opinions of most other people — the pundits and journalists — give it up. They do not understand the land market.” — Phil Anderson
“I did that I believe I was probably the first person in the world, perhaps still the only person in the world, that has been able to marry both the stock market and real estate.” — Phil Anderson
“Home builder stocks tend to peak in price before the peak of the overall cycle. The reason is there is not the continued growth in earnings and revenue that they’ve become accustomed to.” — Akhil Patel (narrating Darren’s chart presentation)
Watchlist Changes
- Linus Rare Earths (LIN): EXIT at ~$15.50 — +68% return in 3–4 months (called end of October 2025)
Emma’s Analysis
This webinar is a comprehensive mid-2026 cycle update that consolidates the key PSE framework. Akhil Patel’s presentation provides the clearest articulation of “why 2026 = land cycle peak” with the 14-up/4-down structure, and his home builder leading indicator chart (D.R. Horton peaking in 2024, same pattern as 2005) is one of the most important charts for confirming the cycle position.
The real estate clock at 3:00 is a useful framing — PSE uses this to indicate the cycle is in the “high property prices, slowing activity, rising vacancies” phase, which historically precedes sustained price drops. This aligns with the real-estate-cycle-peak concept page.
Phil Anderson’s historical book recommendations (Harrison, Hoyt, Wenzlick) trace the intellectual lineage of the cycle framework. His point about being “the first person to marry stock market and real estate” is significant — it explains why PSE’s timing calls differ from pure real estate analysts (who don’t read stocks) and pure stock market analysts (who don’t understand land).
The Linus Rare Earths trade (+68% in 3–4 months) demonstrates the active trading approach PSE uses alongside the macro cycle framework — identifying sector breakouts and managing exits. This connects to the mex-pete-trading-style concept.
The webinar’s macro overlay (wars, trade, AI disruption, inflation) reinforces the PSE thesis that “events damn events” make cycle timing difficult but don’t alter the underlying trajectory. This is a key PSE principle: the cycle repeats regardless of geopolitical events — the events are an overlay, not the driver.
Cross-references: real-estate-cycle-peak, 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle, land-speculation, kondratieff-wave, geopolitical-cycle, market-breadth-divergence, 2026-05-13-gann-10-market-update-13-may, 2026-05-19-gann-12-market-update-may-2026