BBI February 2023 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
February 2023 session (held March 2, according to Kathy’s opening). Phil arrives late. Akhil discusses UK political stabilization after the Truss chaos, gold approaching a potential low (real 10-year US yields as a gold indicator), and the labor market strength driving persistent inflation. Phil visits Melbourne and describes unprecedented construction activity across every street — “I’ve never in my life seen a bigger disconnect between what’s happening on the ground and how it’s being reported.” Key timing: Akhil finds 180 trading days from June 2022 low = March 8, and 144 days from October 2022 low = March 6. Important early-March timing window.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| UK stabilizing (post-Truss) while news turns slightly more negative again — classic market transition | High |
| Gold approaching an important low — real 10-year US yields about to turn down = bullish gold signal | Medium |
| Labor market tight globally because COVID: people retired early, moved to remote work, changed sectors | High |
| Workers gaining power post-COVID is repeating the historical pattern of pandemics creating labor shortages | High |
| Construction activity in Melbourne is completely disconnected from media negativity | High |
| Key timing: 180 trading days from June 2022 low and 144 days from October 2022 low both fall March 6–8 | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Important market low around March 6–8, 2023 (Gann count) | Mar 2023 | Confirmed (March 13 low) |
| Gold approaching bullish low — silver will lead when trend turns | Q1 2023 | Partially confirmed |
| UK breaking above multi-decade resistance → strong investment play | 2023 | Confirmed |
| Construction sector continues booming in Australia, UK, US | 2023–2026 | Confirmed |
| ”Jazz Age” scenario: stocks potentially blow through 2026 land peak | 2026–2029 | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- “Roadmap low” window: first week of March (March 6–8)
- March 13 turned out to be the confirmed direction-setting low (Silicon Valley Bank crisis)
- UK FTSE breaking above 2000/2007/2018 highs = decisive breakout
- Akhil: 2013 → 93 → 83 comparison shows years ending in three all strong after tough “2s”
- Phil: market sideways in US due to uncertainty (debt ceiling, etc.) — earnings driving the real economy
Property & Stock Guidance
- Gold: Watch real 10-year US yields — when they turn down (still positive but declining direction), gold will trend up
- Silver: Leads gold in trend changes — watch for silver above moving averages
- Gold miners: More volatile but leverage to gold; watch GOR (Gold Road Resources in Australia)
- UK FTSE: Breaking decades of resistance → excellent investment play
- Phil’s picks: Westfarmers (WES), D.R. Horton (DHI) — continued higher lows confirming earnings recovery
Notable Quotes
“I cannot be bearish. I just cannot be bearish. It’s just absolutely. I thought it was bad in 2019, it’s got even worse.” — Phil Anderson (on Melbourne construction)
“One is that um a lot of people decided…they couldn’t be bothered working…they had enough in the bank. The other reason is that people also decided that they don’t want to have the sort of working in a central corporate location kind of model. We’ve had effectively the same consequence [as a major pandemic killing workers], even though it’s not been because people have died.” — Akhil Patel