Summary
Akhil presents his commodity cycle forecast built on 30-year Saturn cycles averaged together, validated against a Kondratiev long-wave analysis. Forecast from start of decade: commodity peak April 2011 (got it within 6 months), then fall to mid-2016, then sideways, then bullish outlook for the 2020s. Projects commodity supercycle peak around 2027, after the stock market peak. Key insight: commodities always peak AFTER the stock market at end of real estate cycle.
Key Claims
- 30-year Saturn cycles averaged together provide a reliable commodity price forecast. Gann also emphasized 30-year (360-month) cycles. — confidence: high
- Commodity forecast at start of decade: peak Sep 2010 (actual April 2011), then fall to mid-2016 (confirmed), then sideways with gold rising from late 2018. — confidence: high (track record)
- Kondratiev analysis: 50-60 year long waves in commodity prices. War tends to drive commodity peaks (Napoleonic 1815, US Civil War 1866, WWI 1920, Cold War 1970s). — confidence: high
- 30-year cycles, 60-year Kondratiev, and 18.6-year real estate cycle all point in same direction → bullish commodities in 2020s. — confidence: high
- Commodity prices historically peak AFTER the stock market at end of each real estate cycle (1974, 1990, 2008). — confidence: high
- Belt and Road Initiative as a massive construction program boosts commodity demand. — confidence: high
- US-China confrontation is the Kondratiev “great powers conflict” of this long wave. — confidence: medium-high
- Next commodity supercycle peak projected mid-2027 (25-27 years after the 2000 low). — confidence: medium
Predictions / Forecasts
- Commodities bullish in 2020s consistent with second half of real estate cycle and long-wave upswing. — status: partially confirmed (commodity boom 2021-2022)
- Commodity prices peak after stock market peak, potentially mid-2027. — status: pending
- Gold: surge at end of real estate cycle as banking fears rise. — status: pending
Notable Quotes
“30-year cycle, 60-year cycle, real estate cycle all kind of pointing in the same direction.” “Commodities peak off the broader market… it would not be surprising then to see another year or so of commodity prices rising into the forecast peak in mid 2027.”