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PSE Email Summary: Gann #06 for 2026-7 - Roadmap, Current Market (16 April)

Author: Phil Anderson | Date: 2026-04-16

Overview: This email analyzes the current market juncture, highlighting a peculiar lack of breadth in recent S&P 500 rallies despite new highs. It explores Gann time counts suggesting potential shifts in late April, geopolitical influences (Iran/China), and identifies specific stock opportunities on both the long and short sides.

Key Themes:

  • Market Breadth Concerns: Weak Advancing/Declining (A/D) ratios accompanying S&P 500 jumps, indicating a lack of broad market participation.
  • Gann Time Counts: Late April is a significant period, marking 30 months from the Oct 2023 low and 180 days from the Oct 2023 Nasdaq 100/AI stock peak.
  • Potential Market Top: Dow testing prior highs on light volume with a trend change could signal a major top.
  • Shorting Opportunities: Specific AI-related stocks like Palantir (PLTR) and Applovin (APP) are identified as potential short candidates if they break new 52-week lows.
  • Bullish Economic Factors: Upcoming substantial tax cuts and Trump tariff refunds are expected to boost the US economy.
  • Geopolitical Strategy: The Iran situation is linked to a broader US-China strategic competition, with the US leveraging its “war economy” and “dollar privilege.”
  • Long Opportunities: Victory Metals (VTM) and Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) are noted as long opportunities, pending pullbacks for entry.

Predictions:

  • Late April could see a change in market direction, requiring caution with weak stocks.
  • A Dow failure at prior highs under certain conditions could mark a significant top.
  • PLTR and APP might break to new 52-week lows.
  • Tax cuts and tariff refunds will be bullish for the US economy.
  • The Iran issue is primarily a proxy for US-China relations.

New Data Points:

  • April 8, 2026: S&P 500 jumped 2.5%, opening above 50- and 200-day moving averages, but with an A/D ratio of only 5:1 (lower than historical 12:1 to 37:1 ratios).
  • As of April 16, 2026: S&P 500 made a new closing high, but not confirmed by equal weight S&P, Dow, or NYSE A/D line.

Contradictions / Divergences:

  • The divergence between the S&P 500’s new high and the lack of confirmation from other major indexes and breadth indicators (A/D line) points to an unhealthy rally structure, suggesting S&P strength is not broadly supported.

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