Summary
This page tracks key market predictions and forecasts made by Property Sharemarket Economics (PSE) and its analysts, along with their current status.
Current Predictions
- Date: 2026-09-22 | Source: 2026-09-22-pse-qa-akhil-patel-part-1 | Author: Akhil Patel
- Prediction: “We are expecting a recession around this time over the next sort of 18 to 20 months… The stock market should have a major correction if not crash at some point.” Adds that but for the AI capex boom the US economy might already be in recession. Explicitly confirms the land-cycle peak: “2026 would be the peak of the land cycle. I think we have arrived at that point.”
- Status: Pending (land-cycle peak claim: confirmed by PSE’s own framework; recession window runs to ~March 2028 if counted from the 22 Sep 2026 statement)
- Confidence: High (as PSE’s standing view; timing described as variable — stock peak lags land peak by months to ~2 years)
- Date: 2026-09-22 | Source: 2026-09-22-pse-qa-akhil-patel-part-1 | Author: Akhil Patel
- Prediction: The bull-market end is signalled behaviourally: this bull market’s lows have sat on prior highs “like a bit of a staircase” — the first market low that fails to hold the previous high marks the onset of a more significant downturn. Watches rotation out of tech/cyclicals into defensives (utilities, healthcare; finance lags the broad market).
- Status: Pending (observable and testable weekly — no staircase-break failure observed as of statement date)
- Confidence: High (as a top-watching signal; he judges private credit / AI valuation “too widely discussed” to be the trigger)
- Date: 2026-09-22 | Source: 2026-09-22-pse-qa-akhil-patel-part-1 | Author: Akhil Patel
- Prediction: Gold path: a few more months of consolidation → in a crisis an initial sell-off (forced liquidation, as 2008) → then a strong run, with the uptrend resuming “in about two years.” Commodities broadly: PSE’s 30-year cycle forecast has them running up into 2027 and then correcting.
- Status: Pending (consolidation phase underway)
- Confidence: Medium-High (specific and falsifiable)
- Date: 2026-09-21 | Email: 2026-09-21-pse-sub-40-roadmap-update-september-2026 | Author: Akhil Patel
- Prediction: The Roadmap forecasts a strong finish to the year; Patel expects it to be realised, with an event (not necessarily positive — possibly the resolution of something negative) spurring the market upward in early November into year-end.
- Status: Pending (Roadmap’s “mixed end to Q3” leg already validated: Dow high 5 Aug, drift lower since)
- Confidence: Medium-High (with explicit discipline clause: trade the trend, not the forecast)
- Date: 2026-09-21 | Email: 2026-09-21-pse-sub-40-roadmap-update-september-2026 | Author: Akhil Patel
- Prediction: Watch the 23 September equinox seasonal date for a reaction — either a low forms here, or the market pushes further down into the date. Seasonal dates “almost invariably” bring reversal bars, volatility, pauses, swings, or emotional news.
- Status: Pending
- Confidence: High (as a volatility/watchability claim)
- Date: 2026-09-21 | Email: 2026-09-21-pse-sub-40-roadmap-update-september-2026 | Author: Akhil Patel
- Prediction: The 5 August 2026 Dow high is ~90 degrees off the 3 November US mid-terms (early May = 180 degrees, early April ≈ 30 weeks prior) — the count says watch early November closely for turbulence/emotion. Convergent with Cathy Stacey’s late-Oct/midterm convergence counts from the June and September BBI Q&As.
- Status: Pending
- Confidence: Medium
- Date: 2026-04-16 | Email: pse-sub-email-gann-06-for-2026-7-roadmap-current-market-16-april-2026
- Prediction: Late April could see a change in market direction, requiring caution with weak stocks.
- Status: Pending
- Confidence: High
- Date: 2026-04-16 | Email: pse-sub-email-gann-06-for-2026-7-roadmap-current-market-16-april-2026
- Prediction: A Dow failure at prior highs under certain conditions (lighter volume, trend change to downside) could signal a significant top.
- Status: Pending
- Confidence: High
- Date: 2026-04-16 | Email: pse-sub-email-gann-06-for-2026-7-roadmap-current-market-16-april-2026
- Prediction: Palantir (PLTR) and Applovin (APP) might break to new 52-week lows if price action confirms.
- Status: Pending
- Confidence: Medium