BBB Postcard #39 — Mercury Retrograde, Grain Markets & IMF Food Security Warnings

TL;DR

Darren Wilson explores how Mercury retrograde coincides with geopolitical and market upheavals, reveals that grain futures (soybeans, wheat, corn) bottomed June 30 — well before the IMF’s July 8 food security warning and the re-eruption of Gulf conflict (insiders voting with their money before the narrative catches up), and flags HUD’s deregulation push as a textbook late-cycle signal. He raises the critical question: we’re in year 14 of rising US land prices, and no prior cycle has exceeded 14 years. With Fed Chair Warsh testifying, CPI dropping, and bank earnings all on the same day, a “Mercury retrograde surprise” rally is possible.

Key Points

• Mercury retrograde (June 13 – July 23): Coinciding with upsets — NSW Origin decider upset, Trump-Iran ceasefire collapse, BBB edition delays. Used as a framing device for unexpected reversals.
• Grain charts signaled before the news: Soybeans, wheat, and corn futures all bottomed June 30, well before the IMF’s July 8 food security warning and the re-eruption of Gulf conflict. Classic insider behavior — “one thing that won’t lie to you is a chart.”
• HUD deregulation — late-cycle signal: HUD announced plans to cut red tape and improve mortgage access for non-prime borrowers. Textbook late-cycle behavior. Darren questions the timing given year 14 of rising US land prices — no prior cycle has exceeded 14 years.
• Year 14 threshold: “We are in year 14 of rising US land prices. Every cycle that’s preceded this one, it has never been more than 14 years.” This is a critical cycle timing marker.
• Fed Chair Warsh + CPI + bank earnings convergence: All on the same day. Could produce a “Mercury retrograde surprise” where bad news triggers a market rally.
• Fed Governor Waller pushing for rate hikes: Inflation started climbing in December 2025, BEFORE the Iran-US conflict — suggesting inflation isn’t just oil-driven. Key question: does Warsh agree or push back?
• Gold dropping while oil rises: Potential capital flowing out of AI/tech stocks despite strong earnings. Could signal a broader rotation.
• Prosperity game: Lizzie Magie’s original Landlord’s Game (before it was stolen and became Monopoly) — designed to show how capturing economic rent benefits all of society.

Notable Quotes

“One thing that won’t lie to you is a chart.” — Darren Wilson “We are in year 14 of rising US land prices. Every cycle that’s preceded this one, it has never been more than 14 years.” — Darren Wilson

Watchlist Changes

None explicit — but the year-14 threshold and HUD deregulation are flagged as critical late-cycle signals.

Emma’s Analysis

This postcard contains a crucial cycle timing observation: year 14 of rising US land prices, with no prior cycle exceeding 14 years. If the current cycle began in 2012, year 14 would be 2026 — right on schedule for the peak. The HUD deregulation push is a textbook winner’s curse signal — loosening lending standards to bring in marginal buyers at the top of the cycle is exactly what happened in 2005–06 with subprime. The grain market analysis is a beautiful example of the PSE principle that charts reveal what insiders know before the public narrative catches up — all three grains bottomed June 30, 8 days before the IMF report. The Waller inflation observation (inflation rising since December 2025, before the February conflict) is important because it means the inflation problem is structural, not just war-driven — which means a ceasefire won’t fix it. This connects to Phil’s point in sub-email #21 about bond yields defying efforts to bring them down.

[Source: BBB, postcard-39-2026]