BBI August 2022 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
August 2022 session. Akhil notes the June low was the bottom (Akhil’s podcast interview on June 17 coincided with the exact market low). Phil discusses the emotional impact of the three major market reversals in 2022 (Ukraine, commodity spike, recession fears) and how rising interest rates are actually bullish for banks. The session covers sector guidance, with specific attention to Australian/UK REITs, banks, and commodities. Phil introduces Olga Morales’ planetary energy work as timing tool.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| June 17, 2022 was the bottom — market confirmed by rising off extreme negative sentiment | High |
| Rising interest rates expand bank net interest margins → higher bank profits (contrary to market pricing) | High |
| Three major directional changes in 2022 were extraordinarily emotional and difficult to trade through | High |
| Olga Morales’ planetary timing called the January 5 top, June 24 low, and August 19 high with high accuracy | Medium |
| Australian property prices falling are distorted by media (higher-priced properties not listed, dragging median down) | Medium |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Rally to ~mid-August then reversal back down into October | Aug 2022 | Confirmed |
| October 2022 low (6–10 October window), then rally into November | Oct 2022 | Confirmed |
| Banks will outperform as earnings surprise to the upside | 2022–2024 | Confirmed |
| ”Minor skirmish” in October then “away we go” — cycle continues up | 2022–2026 | Confirmed |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Phil: August 7 is midpoint between equinox and solstice — seasonal reversal point
- S&P 50% retracement at ~4220 — key level to hold
- Market “pricing in absolute fear of a recession” while bank profits are actually going up — irrationality
- “Fear of missing out” emails arriving = classic top signal for the August rally
- Fear of missing out at a top = timing tell → sell/watch; people buying peaks are what create them
Property & Stock Guidance
- Australian banks (CBA): Almost at all-time highs — cannot get sustained real estate downturns with this
- UK banks: Higher dividends as margins expand; closing expensive branches is earnings accretive
- UK REITs: LXY, Big Yellow Storage — commercial property/logistics; better positioned than UK homebuilders
- Rare earths (Lynas): Watch; US strategic tie-up ongoing
- Lithium/AKE: Bounced well on weakness; cyclical buy
- UK homebuilders: Constrained by labor (Brexit), land, and financing costs — underperform vs US peers
- BHP: More bullish than Rio (copper exposure vs. iron ore)
Notable Quotes
“The emotional impact has been extraordinarily the last couple of months, something I hadn’t seen before.” — Phil Anderson
“When you get a rally like that [20% NASDAQ], it just doesn’t look like it [a bear market rally]. It is very hard to stay out of markets.” — Phil Anderson
“Second half of every cycle, banks making higher profits, more credit creation, banks pushing loans — this is very bullish overall.” — Phil Anderson