Investment & Economics Wiki

Josh Ryan-Collins

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Summary

Josh Ryan-Collins is a UK economist specializing in the political economy of land, housing, and money/credit. He is the lead author of “Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housing” (Zed Books, 2017, co-authored with Toby Lloyd and Laurie Macfarlane), which was named an economics book of the year by Martin Wolf in the Financial Times. His primary contribution is the empirical documentation of how mortgage credit liberalization drove three UK housing boom-busts (1970s, 1980s, 2000s) — the “land-credit feedback loop” that amplifies the natural 18-year cycle into a financial crisis.

Key Works

  • “Rethinking the Economics of Land and Housing” (Zed Books, 2017, with Lloyd and Macfarlane) — the primary text establishing the land-credit feedback loop framework for modern economies
  • UCL Bartlett BSP Lecture (2019) — video lecture presenting the key findings to an academic planning audience; transcript in PSE archive
  • IIPP Blog: Economic Rent, Land and Housing (Feb 2019) — accessible summary of his framework
  • Various journal articles in British Journal of Sociology and International Journal of Finance, Money, Institutions and Markets

Core Theoretical Positions

The Land-Credit Feedback Loop (His Primary Contribution)

Ryan-Collins documents the post-1970 structural change: bank credit shifted from business lending to mortgage lending, creating a self-reinforcing loop where:

  • Rising land prices → more collateral → more lending → more demand → higher prices
  • This loop has no natural brake except debt-service limits
  • Three UK boom-busts (1970s, 1988, 2007) correspond exactly to three waves of mortgage credit deregulation

The 80% Land Rule

Ryan-Collins presents evidence from 14 advanced economies (1950s–present) that 80% of house price changes are explained by land values — only 20% by construction costs. This is the quantitative core of his framework.

UK Land vs. House Price Divergence

UK land values rose approximately 15x (1,500%) since 1947, while house structures rose only 5x (500%). The 3x differential IS pure economic rent capitalized into land price — and it’s the source of housing unaffordability.

Neoclassical Economics’ Fatal Error

Ryan-Collins traces the disappearance of land from economic theory to the late 19th century, when neoclassical economists conflated land with capital (reducing factors of production from three to two). The political motivation: landowning interests funding academic economics to suppress the Georgist rent-tax argument. Martin Wolf’s endorsement: “the removal of land from the canonical neoclassical model… was an intellectual blunder… has led to dreadful outcomes.”

Background

  • PhD in Economics and Finance, Southampton University Business School
  • Visiting fellow, Southampton Centre for Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development
  • Research fellow, City University Political Economy Research Centre
  • Founded the Brixton Pound (local currency, South London) — founding interest in monetary reform
  • Joined UCL IIPP in autumn 2018 after NEF

Relationship to Other Thinkers

  • Ryan-Collins extends Ricardo, George, and Harrison’s rent-theory framework with modern empirical data
  • His feedback loop mechanism parallels Gaffney’s credit-amplification work (2009)
  • Different from the PSE/Anderson framework: more policy-oriented (reform proposals) and less focused on investment timing
  • His work provides the strongest empirical case for the land-credit mechanism in modern economies

Cross-References

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