PSE Gann Sub Email #26 for 2026-7 — Market Update 4th August

TL;DR

Phil Anderson uses the upcoming seasonal midpoint (cross-quarter date) to flag three key sectors to watch: the US Dollar Index (double-top from June solstice, potential reversal), 30-year Treasury yields (breaking to highest since 2007, watch for back-test of breakout), and QQQ (rallied off correction, testing 50-day MA — same midpoint date two years ago ended the yen carry-trade selloff). PLTR short stopped out on post-earnings rally — the last active trade in the PSE system is now closed. AME (Ametek) added to US Watchlist as a Mexican Pete setup near all-time highs. [Source: PSE, pse-sub-email-gann-26-for-2026-7-pse-market-update-4th-august]

Key Points

• Seasonal midpoint timing: Another cross-quarter midpoint arrives this week. Anderson emphasises how dollar reversals cluster around seasonal dates (solstice, equinox, and their midpoints). The DXY double-top began around the June solstice — watch for a reversal at this midpoint.
• 30-year Treasury yield breakout: Long-bond rates hitting highest since 2007. The most recent swing higher started around the June solstice. Anderson watches for a trend reversal that could back-test the breakout level — a back test and rally off that level could present an opportunity to reenter an inverse bond ETF (e.g., TBT).
• QQQ correction and rally: QQQ dropped into correction territory off the early June high, then rallied to test the 50-day moving average from below, nearing the prior high. Two years ago, the same midpoint date ended the yen “carry trade” unwind selloff — a historical rhyme.
• Yen intervention context: The DXY double-top is “very emotional given the recent intervention in the Japanese yen by both U.S. and Japanese officials” — a geopolitical overlay on the seasonal pattern.
• PLTR stop hit: The short position in Palantir (PLTR) — the sole active trade across the entire PSE watchlist system since June 25 — hit its $135stoponapost-earningsrally.Thisclosesthelastactivetrade.PLTRwasinitiatedat$107.27 (short), so the stop-out is a loss (a short entered at $107.27losesatanyexitaboveentry).TheAugust4portfolioPDFrecordstheactualfillat$162.66 — a gap through the $135stop—for-$55.39/unit realized. (Corrected 2026-08-08; this line originally called the stop-out a ~$27.73/unit profit — sign error.)

Notable Quotes

“Patterns keep repeating in the capital markets, yet no one seems to catch on.”

“It’s worth noting that two years ago, this same midpoint date saw the end of a sharp QQQ selloff that was blamed on the yen ‘carry trade’ unwind.”

Watchlist Changes

• EXIT: PLTR (Palantir) — short position stopped out at $135onpost-earningsrally.Removedfrommodelportfolio.Thetradeclosedataloss—actualfill$162.66 per the August 4 portfolio PDF (gap through the $135stop),-$55.39/unit from the $107.27shortentry.\ast (Corrected2026-08-08;originallymisstatedasa$27.73/unit profit.)* This ends the PLTR short that had been the sole active trade since June 25.
• ADD: AME (Ametek) — added to US Watchlist. Mexican Pete pattern since topping near $240 in February; series of smaller pullbacks points to accumulation in the base. Stock trying to clear resistance following earnings. Breakout would be to new all-time highs — “which is what you prefer to see when trading Mexican Pete setups.”

Emma’s Analysis

This email marks a significant inflection point: the PLTR short — the last active trade across the entire PSE system since the portfolio went to zero active positions on June 30 — has now been stopped out. The portfolio has been in cash for 34+ days (June 30 → August 4), and with PLTR’s closure, there are zero active trades anywhere in the PSE system for the first time. This is the purest expression of PSE’s late-cycle thesis: as the Real Estate Cycle Peak approaches, actionable setups (both long and short) thin out to nothing. Yet Anderson is simultaneously seeding new long setups — AME is a classic Mexican Pete pattern near all-time highs, and the watchlist also holds IEFA and DRS, suggesting he sees a tradable low in place (consistent with Gann #25’s “another US stock market low is likely in place for the year”). The 30-year Treasury yield at its highest since 2007 is a critical macro signal — if the breakout holds and back-tests successfully, the inverse bond ETF (TBT) reentry would reactivate a trade that was stopped out on June 26. The DXY double-top seasonal reversal, if it materialises, would confirm the international equity rotation thesis (IEFA, UDN). [Source: PSE, pse-sub-email-gann-26-for-2026-7-pse-market-update-4th-august]

Cross-references: 2026-08-04-gann-25-using-time, 2026-07-28-gann-24-commodities-breakout-gsg-dba-drs, 2026-07-31-sub-email-34-latest-tracking-re-cycle