TL;DR
Phil Anderson updates the end-of-cycle indicator dashboard (following 2025’s Email #21 “Possible End of Cycle Movements”): US homebuilders Toll Brothers and Lennar (the land-price proxy) have peaked, US house prices per OECD/Zillow are rolling over, the Dow is tracking the 2026 Roadmap, and commodities — last to peak — are being watched via the FOOD ETF for food-inflation pressure. His sequence remains on script: 2026 US land price peak (called years ago) → stocks peak after (not yet done) → recession after 2026 into 2028 as rising long rates bite. “All the right things seem to be happening to take us to the eventual completion of the ‘Winner’s Curse’ and real estate cycle ending.” [Source: PSE, pse-subscriber-email-34-for-2026-latest-tracking-of-the-re-cycle]
Key Points
- Order of the peak (Harrison): land price peaks first — this cycle measured directly (Cathy’s work, Sub #17 for 2026) versus prior cycles’ proxy of listed house builders.
- US homebuilders (Toll Brothers & Lennar): charts updated; Phil notes Toll Brothers is doing much more upper-end high-net-worth housing than in 2005/06. Darren covered the builder peaks in BBB Postcard #41.
- US mortgage rates: remain elevated and will only worsen if US 30-year bonds continue their current trend (yields up).
- US house prices: OECD data and the Zillow Home Value Index both shown rolling over — consistent with the 2026 US land-price peak “which appears on course still.”
- US stocks: Dow tracking the January 2026 Roadmap forecast; “War is very bullish for stocks – unless it goes world-wide.” A large, fast correction (1,000 Dow points in 24 hours) is bullish, not a bear-market harbinger. Stocks peak after land — “do not appear to have done so just yet.”
- Commodities last to peak, usually as recession has already started. New watch instrument: Betashares Global Agriculture Companies ETF (FOOD, ASX) as a food-inflation gauge, with Gann mid-points marked. Indonesia is reporting crop failures; Phil expects worse — echoes of the super El Niño 150 years ago (key count for next year).
- Yield curve: US 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread chart included as part of the end-cycle dashboard.
- Timeline: “Further rises in US interest rates will cause much damage and should bring in recession after 2026 and into 2028.”
- Recommended viewing: TLDR (UK) — “Why AI’s debt problem is worse than you think”; increasing debt loads + war-pressured energy + food inflation = “You couldn’t wish for better ‘Winner’s Curse’ developments to put upwards pressure on long-term interest rates.”
Notable Quotes
“Remember, 2026 was suggested all those years ago as a US land price peak, which appears on course still. After that, stocks peak, and do not appear to have done so just yet.”
“All the right things seem to be happening to take us to the eventual completion of the ‘Winner’s Curse’ and real estate cycle ending. It’s just a question of waiting.”
Watchlist Changes
None explicit — new watch instrument: FOOD ETF (Betashares Global Agriculture Companies, ASX) as the food-inflation / commodities-last-to-peak gauge.
Emma’s Analysis
This is the cleanest single-page statement of the PSE peak sequence currently on record: land (2026, in) → stocks (pending) → commodities (last, into recession). It triangulates with 2026-07-30-bbb-postcard-41-berkshire-taylor-morrison (builders’ 2024 decade highs + ~17-month land-to-stocks lag pointing at a 2027 equity top) and with BBB #61’s late-cycle commodity-inflation thesis (2026-07-31-bbb-61-rare-earths-china-kondratieff) — three sources inside one week all pointing at the same Winners Curse Phase mechanics: long rates up, land done, stocks topping process, select commodities as the last bull market. The FOOD ETF is a genuinely new dashboard instrument (food inflation rather than metals) and pairs with Gann #25’s warning that historically-high land prices mean less inflation is needed to break things. Watch for Phil converting the FOOD/agriculture theme into actual watchlist entries next. [Source: PSE, pse-subscriber-email-34-for-2026-latest-tracking-of-the-re-cycle]
Cross-references: 2026-08-04-gann-25-using-time, 2026-07-31-bbb-61-rare-earths-china-kondratieff, 2026-07-30-bbb-postcard-41-berkshire-taylor-morrison