Summary
Gann #22 is a methodology reminder email in which Phil Anderson reconnects subscribers to the foundations of PSE’s trading process. He traces the lineage from W.D. Gann’s Truth of the Stock Tape page 67 (Mexican Pete) through to PSE’s currentMex Pete Portfolio practice. Three core principles are restated: (1) stocks breaking to all-time new highs tend to keep going (especially in US markets); (2) certain sectors move at specific times correlated to the 18.6-year real estate cycle (rent-producing stocks — banks, mining, space — should do better in the second half); (3) the method enables avoiding guessing, which Anderson admits he was “appalling at.” He cites Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s study of ~95,000 US stocks since the 1920s: roughly 4% of stocks produced most of the market’s long-term gains, while many underperformed or disappeared. A CNBC follow-up (May 2026) confirms: just 46 firms accounted for half the market wealth in the last 100 years. Anderson highlights the 18.6 Strategic Investment Portfolio (Australian market, Oakleighfs) results since 2021 as live proof of the methodology. He closes with a Winner’s Curse warning: Bloomberg’s July 10 article on young investors “betting it all” is “a common ‘Winner’s Curse’ response” that “usually goes pear-shaped for most in the end.”
Key Claims
- Stocks breaking to all-time new highs (per Mex Pete pattern) tend to keep going, especially in US markets. — confidence: high
- Certain sectors tend to move only at specific times, correlated to the 18.6-year real estate cycle. Rent-producing stocks (banks, mining, and now space) should do better in the second half of the cycle. — confidence: high
- The Mex Pete methodology’s most important function is enabling traders to “totally avoid guessing,” which Anderson found he was “appalling at.” — confidence: high
- Professor Bessembinder’s study of ~95,000 US stocks since the 1920s: roughly 4% of stocks produced most of the market’s long-term gains; many stocks underperformed or disappeared completely. — confidence: high
- CNBC (May 2026): just 46 firms accounted for half the market wealth in the last 100 years. — confidence: high
- The 18.6 Strategic Investment Portfolio (Australian market, run by Oakleighfs) demonstrates the methodology in practice with real returns since inception in 2021. — confidence: high
- Bloomberg (July 10, 2026): young investors are “betting it all” — Anderson identifies this as “a common ‘Winner’s Curse’ response” that “usually goes pear-shaped for most in the end.” — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- Young investors “betting it all” will likely suffer significant losses as the cycle turns — status: pending (Winner’s Curse pattern recognition)
Concepts Referenced
- Mex Pete Trading Style — the core methodology being restated
- Winner’s Curse Phase — the young-investor excess Anderson identifies
- 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle — sector timing framework
- Sector Rotation — rent-producing stocks in second half of cycle
Notable Quotes
- “In trying to understand markets, I found W.D. Gann, in the end, resonated best with me.”
- “The goal is not to own everything. The goal is to identify stocks moving higher over time and manage risk along the way.”
- “Only a very small percentage of stocks – roughly 4% - produced most of the market’s long-term gains, while many stocks underperformed or disappeared completely.”
- “This is a common ‘Winner’s Curse’ response. It usually goes pear-shaped for most in the end.”
- “Markets won’t ever make this easy. If it was easy, then everybody could do it.” (from Sub #31, same date)