Summary
Phil Anderson uses Mexican Pete (ascending triangle) chart patterns across several U.S. and Australian stocks to illustrate broader economic dynamics, including the approaching U.S. property cycle peak, record property tax revenues, and a K-shaped recovery favouring higher-income households. The email also delivers model portfolio and watchlist updates, adding Westpac (WBC) and CNX Resources (CNX) while removing the KRE regional banking ETF from the watchlist.
Key Claims
- The U.S. property cycle is approaching its peak per PSE analysis — confidence: high
- Rising U.S. property taxes are at record levels, acting as a tailwind for school district funding and school bus demand (BLBD) — confidence: high
- U.S. healthcare employment has grown from 15.9 million to 18.4 million over five years — confidence: high
- U.S. healthcare spending per capita is approximately twice that of other countries, driven primarily by higher hospital payments — confidence: medium
- A K-shaped recovery is evident in the housing market, visible in the performance divergence between luxury builder Toll Brothers (TOL) and lower-price-point builder Lennar (LEN) — confidence: high
- Combining Mexican Pete pattern recognition with real estate cycle knowledge provides an analytical edge — confidence: high (editorial claim)
Mex Pete References
- Blue Bird Corp (BLBD): Classic Mexican Pete setup — flat top near $60 resistance, series of higher lows forming since the April 2025 pullback. Bullish breakout anticipated.
- Universal Health Services (UHS): Another bullish Mexican Pete setup identified; no specific resistance level stated.
- State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB): Possible Mexican Pete setup forming; Anderson directs readers to examine underlying homebuilders individually for deeper insight.
- CNX Resources Corp (CNX): Mexican Pete pattern building since 2024 following a top near 41 resistance.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Action | Stop Loss | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| WBC (Westpac Banking, ASX) | Add to model portfolio | $40.00 | Clearing resistance above $40–41; pattern developed over shorter timeframe than typical |
| CNX (CNX Resources Corp) | Add to U.S. watchlist | — | Mexican Pete pattern; top ~$41, higher lows since Aug 2025 |
| KRE (SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF) | Remove from watchlist | — | Removed due to sufficient existing U.S. bank sector exposure |
| BLBD (Blue Bird Corp) | Watchlist / educational example | — | Mexican Pete near $60 flat top; no explicit buy signal stated |
| UHS (Universal Health Services) | Watchlist / educational example | — | Mexican Pete setup; no explicit buy signal stated |
| TOL (Toll Brothers) | Educational comparison | — | Outperforming LEN over past six months; luxury segment beneficiary |
| LEN (Lennar) | Educational comparison | — | Underperforming TOL; lower-price-point segment lagging |
Predictions / Forecasts
- U.S. property cycle is approaching its peak (no specific date given, consistent with broader PSE real estate cycle framework).
- Continued outperformance expected in luxury housing (TOL) relative to entry-level housing (LEN) as K-shaped recovery persists.
- Property tax revenues expected to remain elevated, sustaining school district budgets and demand for school buses (BLBD tailwind).
Notable Quotes
“If you can learn how to read a chart, you can develop an edge in understanding key dynamics at play in the economy. That’s especially the case when you combine Gann-inspired chart analysis with knowledge of the real estate cycle.”
“Being able to locate Mexican Pete patterns and understand the difference between a primary uptrend versus a downtrend can give you an edge in understanding the dynamics at play in the economy, especially when combined with the real estate cycle.”