Summary
Phil Anderson’s 35th Gann subscriber email covers record highs in gold (above 117/oz), attributing the moves to a weakening US dollar and currency debasement dynamics typical of this stage in the real estate cycle. The email focuses heavily on a potential sustained breakout in broader commodity indexes via the DBC ETF, warns of inflationary implications, and delivers several watchlist updates including new additions KBE and PFG, stop-loss raises on GLD and XOM, and the removal of TCL.
Key Claims
- Gold hit a new record high above 2,000 in early 2024 — confidence: high
- Silver reached $117/oz, up 54% in 2026 alone — confidence: high
- The US dollar peaked in September 2022 and its subsequent pullback is a primary catalyst for precious metals gains — confidence: high
- Moves in the dollar and precious metals are described as typical behaviour at this point in the real estate cycle — confidence: high
- A sustained breakout in broader commodities (DBC above $24) could be significantly inflationary, analogous to mid-2022 — confidence: medium
- Rising Japanese government bond yields cited as evidence of global public debt concerns contributing to the currency debasement trade — confidence: medium
- KBE breaking out of a Mexican Pete pattern formed since late 2024, with a back-test of the breakout level underway; if held, would be an all-time record high for KBE — confidence: medium
- PFG has formed a gradual series of higher lows since a late 2022 top near 94 being the key breakout level — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
- DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund): Mexican Pete pattern forming in broader commodities; watching for move above $24 and two days down to add a position.
- XOM (Exxon Mobil): Already added to the Mex Pete Model Portfolio; stop raised to $122, described as the breakout level from its Mexican Pete pattern.
- CVX (Chevron Corp) and IXC (iShares Global Energy ETF): Noted as Mexican Pete candidates on the watchlist but unlikely to be added due to overlap with existing XOM and FUEL positions.
- KBE (State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF): Recently broke out of a Mexican Pete pattern formed since late 2024; price is back-testing the breakout level; watching for two days down to add a position.
- TCL (Transurban Group): Mexican Pete setup invalidated by ongoing pullback; removed from Australian watchlist.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Name | Action / Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | Watch / Potential Buy | Watch for two days down following move above $24 to add position |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Trust | Stop Raised | Stop raised to $415 |
| XOM | Exxon Mobil | Stop Raised | Stop raised to $122 (Mexican Pete breakout level) |
| KMI | Kinder Morgan Inc | Watch / Potential Buy | Watch for two days down to add; midstream energy (transport & storage) |
| CVX | Chevron Corp | Watchlist – Unlikely to Add | Too correlated with existing XOM/FUEL positions |
| IXC | iShares Global Energy ETF | Watchlist – Unlikely to Add | Too correlated with existing XOM/FUEL positions |
| KBE | State Street SPDR S&P Bank ETF | New Watchlist Addition | Watch for two days down following back-test of Mexican Pete breakout level; potential all-time high |
| KRE | State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF | Existing Watch – Noted for Distinction | Narrower regional bank exposure; distinct from KBE |
| PFG | Principal Financial Group Inc | New Watchlist Addition | Watch for breakout above $94; would be new all-time high |
| TCL | Transurban Group | Removed from Watchlist | Pullback invalidating Mexican Pete setup |
| FUEL | (Unnamed fuel-related position) | Existing Portfolio Hold | Referenced as part of Mex Pete Model Portfolio alongside XOM |
Predictions / Forecasts
- A sustained breakout in the DBC above $24 is expected to be significantly inflationary, with potential to impact monetary policy — timeframe unspecified.
- KBE holding its Mexican Pete breakout back-test would result in a new all-time high for the ETF — conditional on price action holding.
- PFG breaking above $94 would constitute a new all-time record high — conditional on price action.
- Broader commodity gains are characterised as consistent with the current stage of the 18-year real estate cycle, implying the cycle remains on track — no specific date given.
Notable Quotes
“Whatever name the financial media calls it, the moves in the dollar and precious metals are typical of what you see at this point in the real estate cycle.”
“A sustained breakout in broader commodities could be very inflationary, similar to what occurred during the last run into mid-2022. Higher price levels and the potential impact on monetary policy will have much wider implications than the rally in gold and silver.”