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Summary
Phil points subscribers to key 2025 emails that provide context for the 2026 Roadmap (end-of-cycle movement templates, US government borrowing analysis, learning curve). He notes that the US homebuilders ETF has “done everything right for the real estate cycle” with a recent tick-up related to Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac policy changes under Trump. Points out that Trump’s expansionary housing policies (50-year mortgages, more lending) are classic late-cycle speculation amplifiers.
Key Claims
- Trump’s housing policies (Fannie/Freddie expansion, lower rates, 50-year mortgages) simply inflate land prices rather than creating real affordability. — confidence: high
- US homebuilders ETF has followed the real estate cycle pattern correctly since 2008. — confidence: high
- All Trump economic interventions add to land value, not fundamental productivity. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- US homebuilders will eventually peak with the cycle top. — status: pending
Concepts Referenced
Notable Quotes
“Trump will throw everything possible to get housing movement: interest rates at 1%, more lending, you name it they’ll do it. Speculation all of it.”