Summary
Phil Anderson argues that speculative excess in meme coins — particularly Fartcoin and Trump’s meme coin — are hallmarks of the mania phase at the peak of the real estate cycle, analogous to dot-com speculation ~30 years prior. Against this backdrop, he adds Range Resources Corp (RRC) to the Mexican Pete Model Portfolio, citing a breakout from a multi-year Mex Pete pattern with a retracement entry coinciding with the February 2 Gann date.
Key Claims
- The current cycle’s mania phase is visible in cryptocurrency meme coins rather than housing excesses (as in 2007–08) — confidence: high
- Fartcoin grew from a 2B market cap within weeks of launching in late 2024 — confidence: high
- Trump’s meme coin launched at 74, peaking near a $15B market valuation — confidence: high
- Speculative meme coin activity mirrors dot-com era IPO mania, occurring ~30 years after the internet bubble began — confidence: medium
- Commodities and commodity producers broadly outperform at this stage of the real estate cycle — confidence: medium
- RRC retested its breakout level at a 50% retracement of the December 23–January 22 trend move, coinciding with the February 2 Gann date — confidence: high
- DE is expected to set up a similar Mex Pete retracement opportunity after breaking to new highs — confidence: medium
- EOG and AEIS are at key resistance levels inside their Mex Pete patterns but have not yet broken out — confidence: medium
Mex Pete References
- Range Resources Corp (RRC): Mex Pete (Mexican Pete / ascending triangle) pattern building from 2022. Stock broke out of the pattern, then retraced to support at the breakout level. Retracement also constituted a 50% pullback of the December 23–January 22 trend move. Entry triggered around the February 2 Gann date seasonal mid-point.
- Deere & Co (DE): Mentioned as setting up a similar Mex Pete pattern; watching for a retracement after a breakout to new highs. No entry signal issued yet.
- EOG Resources (EOG): Inside Mex Pete pattern, at key resistance. No breakout yet.
- Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS): Inside Mex Pete pattern, at key resistance. No breakout yet.
Stock Picks / Signals
| Ticker | Action | Entry Trigger | Stop Loss | Price Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RRC (Range Resources Corp) | Buy / Add to Mex Pete Model Portfolio | Retracement to breakout support ~Feb 2 Gann date | $32.75 (just below most recent higher low) | Not specified | Natural gas E&P; breakout from 2022 Mex Pete pattern |
| DE (Deere & Co) | Watch — no action yet | Waiting for retracement after new high breakout | Not specified | Not specified | Alert to be issued if entry sets up |
| EOG (EOG Resources) | Watch — no action yet | At key resistance inside pattern | Not specified | Not specified | Alert to be issued if entry sets up |
| AEIS (Advanced Energy Industries) | Watch — no action yet | At key resistance inside pattern | Not specified | Not specified | Alert to be issued if entry sets up |
Predictions / Forecasts
- The real estate cycle is in its final mania years; a coming bust is anticipated following the current liquidity-driven excess — timeframe not specified
- A rising tide of liquidity at cycle peak will continue lifting the stock market broadly in the near term — timeframe not specified
- February 2, 2025 identified as a Gann date / seasonal mid-point where a change in trend for RRC was anticipated — date: 2025-02-02
Notable Quotes
“Meme coins are sometimes issued by a famous personality trying to cash in on their brand. Other times, meme coins just randomly appear out of nowhere yet attract a huge following.”
“It might be a different instrument relative to the dot com bubble, but that kind of repeating action in speculative corners of the market shows the mania phase is underway. It’s the kind of speculative risk-taking that can only happen when liquidity and stimulus are flowing to all corners of the market. And it sets the stage for the coming bust.”