Summary
The September 2024 session delivers Akhil’s broad macro update: most assets are moving up simultaneously for the first time this cycle (outside of the post-COVID stimulus surge), gold and silver rallying strongly, China announcing a major stimulus package, and the US cutting rates by 50bp. Akhil sees an increasingly broad bull market shaping up for a strong 2025 (years ending in 5). Phil is more focused on the political economy — calling out media ownership dynamics, the self-interest of ruling elites suppressing land tax reform, and what he sees as the deliberate talking-down of commercial real estate by Blackstone-type funds positioning to buy cheaply. Both reiterate the core thesis: it’s always a land question, the real estate cycle drives everything, and the charts (not news) are the only reliable guide.
Key Claims
- Most assets moving up simultaneously (Sept 2024) for the first time this cycle since COVID stimulus — gold, silver, stocks, real estate, Bitcoin — a classic late-cycle convergence. (confidence: 0.80)
- Dollar weaker than expected: Falling dollar supportive of commodities, emerging markets, Bitcoin, and global growth. Gold and silver have fundamental reasons to keep rising (real yields, geopolitical hedging, central bank buying). (confidence: 0.75)
- China stimulus package: Measures to support real estate developers, consumption for poorer workers, and college graduates. Akhil interprets this as evidence that China’s growth is not as broad-based as desired, and also as potentially bullish for commodities (copper, industrial metals, Australia/Canada resource sector). (confidence: 0.72)
- US rate cut 50bp (Sept 2024): More cuts signaled. Long end of yield curve more inflation-sensitive — Akhil notes the October 2022 global liquidity bottom (coincident with the mid-cycle low) as confirming the second-half acceleration. (confidence: 0.78)
- Commercial real estate: Blackstone neighbor example — new, well-located, tenanted office space 2×ed in 18 months. Bad CRE valuations were deliberately fostered to allow big players to buy cheaply; recovery now underway in quality assets. (confidence: 0.70)
- Home builder stocks not topped (Sept 2024): Forbes cover on “housing billionaires” (US home builder CEOs now worth $1B+) is a Winners’ Curse signal; 660 sq ft “affordable” homes in the US reflects extreme land price pressure. (confidence: 0.75)
- Global liquidity cycle bottom = October 2022: Coincides with mid-cycle low; second-half acceleration now underway. Bitcoin as a proxy for global liquidity. (confidence: 0.78)
- Information and media: Phil argues financial news is often deliberately placed to create sentiment — specifically, CRE doom pieces were planted to allow large players to buy. Charts, not headlines, are the only reliable signal. (confidence: 0.80)
- Land value tax: Would immediately solve the housing crisis — land price falls to near zero (obligation to pay 5% annual charge makes holding unproductive land prohibitive), creates construction boom, workers can afford housing. Both Phil and Akhil endorse the Henry George solution. (confidence: 0.90 as their stated view)
Predictions/Forecasts
- Strong Q4 2024 into 2025: Rate cuts + China stimulus + broad market participation = road map pointing to a very strong year-end 2024 and an exceptionally bullish 2025 (years ending in 5).
- Commodities: Potential inflection point upward driven by China stimulus and falling dollar; industrial metals, Australian/Canadian resource stocks beneficiaries.
- Gold and silver: More upside expected over the coming 2 years; central bank buying, dollar weakness, real yield compression all supportive. Not the final top yet.
- US election (Nov 2024): Phil believes the market “doesn’t have it right” about the likely outcome; either outcome leads to sustained spending and eventually rising long-bond yields.
- Cycle peak: Still targeting 2026 for land market; stock market somewhat after (or concurrent). All key timing and price infrastructure (roadmap, homebuilder stocks, long bond) still intact as of September 2024.
- UK political risk: Labour tax rises + cycle downturn = Nigel Farage potentially next UK PM within the 5-year parliamentary term. 100-year repeat (1925 UK austerity / gold standard) relevant for UK outlook.
- Land tax reform as the real solution: Phil proposes two simple measures for the UK: vacancy tax on foreign-owned empty properties + raise income tax threshold — would immediately create a building boom without the distortions of current Labour proposals.