BBI January 2024 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
January 2024 session — first of the year. Akhil notes colleagues at his international organization are now talking about investments and markets (speculative enthusiasm signal). Markets are at all-time highs in multiple countries: US, Japan, Germany, France, Australia. The “speculative frenzy” signs are appearing: Bitcoin/Ethereum surging, gold miners breaking out, conversations about investing everywhere. Akhil cautions: year ending in four can have a couple of months down mid-year, but years five are strongly up. Phil discusses the history of rising interest rates NOT causing property declines, and the roadmap’s setup for 2024–2026.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| Colleagues talking about investments at work = speculative cycle signal | High |
| Dollar finally starting to decline from Oct 2023 → Bitcoin, gold, Ethereum surging | High |
| Bitcoin surge and gold breakout associated with dollar weakening and speculative frenzy | High |
| Year ending in four: might have months down mid-year (election uncertainty); years five strongly up | High |
| ”The market cannot crash until there’s no buyers left” — not at that point yet | High |
| When all-time highs break and sustain, time frame resets — counts restart from breakout | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| US breaks into all-time new highs and sustains → confirms bull market extension | Q1 2024 | Confirmed |
| Possible top/turning point around May 2024 (30 weeks from October 2023 low) | May 2024 | Confirmed |
| Strong finish to 2024 after possible mid-year pause | H2 2024 | Confirmed |
| 2025 very strongly up (year ending in five) | 2025 | Confirmed |
| Rising interest rates did NOT cause property crashes — proven by PSE ebook showing 11 rate hike cycles | 2022–2024 | Confirmed |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- All major markets at or near all-time highs: US, Japan, France, Germany, Australia
- Bitcoin and gold breaking out simultaneously = dollar weakness + speculative frenzy
- “Complacency” appearing but cycle has more to run
- 30 weeks from October 27 = ~May 2024 turning point; then strong H2
- Phil’s PSE ebook “House Prices Did What?” released publicly — documents 11 rate hike cycles and rising property prices
- 1963–1966, 1984–1987, 2004–2007 comparable cycle phases: all strongly up
Property & Stock Guidance
- Bitcoin / Ethereum: Dollar weakness driving; don’t overleverage — speculative
- Gold: Breaking out with dollar weakness; gold miners starting to move
- Silver: Above moving averages on all timeframes; likely to outperform gold when trend established
- US homebuilders: At all-time highs with fresh counts reset; Phil: “Look at 2004 to 2007, 1984 to 1987, 1963 to 1966”
- Japan Nikkei: Close to 38,000 → watch for stories about “Japan is back”
Notable Quotes
“I’m wondering if there is going to be some kind of surprise in the next few months…Years ending in four sometimes can have a couple of sort of months down. Years in five tend to be pretty strongly up and very consistent.” — Akhil Patel
“The market can’t crash until there’s no buyers left…the banks have to be expanding and creating credit…Not only will we be all in, there’ll be a lot of people all in plus debt.” — Phil Anderson
“The real estate cycle did absolutely everything it could to repeat and to repeat on time. It was so much like clockwork I couldn’t believe it.” — Phil Anderson