BBI November 2023 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
November 2023 session. Akhil is absent (stuck in Nairobi, flight canceled). Kathy and Darren Woolston (PSE Cycle Investor newsletter editor) present Akhil’s notes and charts. Phil joins and gives commentary despite a “terrible October” due to the emotional difficulty of the Middle East conflict. Key themes: Dollar topping on October 3, US leading global easing cycle, roadmap tracking well (15th of each month = key turning dates confirmed), US homebuilders all near all-time highs with bullish flag patterns. Phil discusses false breaks increasing, space commercialization plans (defense spending in space), and the 2024 elections year as bullish (40 countries holding elections, all incumbents spending).
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| October 3 dollar top confirmed; US leading world into easing money conditions | High |
| Roadmap for 2023 tracking well: mid-month dates (13th–15th of each month) were key turning points | High |
| US homebuilders: all near all-time highs → very bullish for 2024–2026 | High |
| 40 countries holding elections in 2024 → incumbents will spend → bullish year | High |
| Space commercialization plans = new DoD-backed land-grab; new economic rent frontier | Medium |
| False break phenomenon in markets is accelerating: shorts get squeezed, reversals are faster | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 is a bullish year; US breaks into all-time new highs and stays | 2024 | Confirmed |
| 30 weeks from October 27 low = key May 2024 turning point | May 2024 | Confirmed |
| Japan Nikkei breaks 38,000 (1990 all-time high) | 2024 | Confirmed (Nikkei hit 40,000+ in 2024) |
| Commodities bottoming in 2023 → cycle turns up in 2024 | 2024 | Confirmed |
| False breaks at the top will make the 2026 cycle peak harder to identify | 2026 | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- Roadmap dates: January 13, February 13, March 13 (SVB crisis low), April 13, June 15, July (early), October 3 — all confirmed
- “Things are lining up” — the patterns are so obvious Phil gets nervous
- 30 weeks from October 27 low → ~May 2024 turning point
- Nikkei attempt at breakout above multi-decade resistance (approaching 38,000)
- Nasdaq: big flag pole formation, just below all-time highs; expect break higher
- Phil: “Every ½ percent drop in US interest rates next year will drive markets nuts”
Property & Stock Guidance
- Toll Brothers (TOL): Confirmed cycle bellwether; at/above all-time highs with flag pattern
- US homebuilders watchlist: Darren assembled 20–30 US homebuilders and suppliers; nearly all bullish
- Japan Nikkei: Best international investment story — 38,000 target (1990 high); many stories to follow
- Gold (USD): Near $2,000 resistance; approaching all-time high
- Gold stocks (AUS): Iron ore back above $200/ton AUD; gold stocks starting to move
- Copper stocks (AUS): Sandfire (SFR) watching for confirmation
Notable Quotes
“October 27 was a false low, a failed low. The market reversed really really quick because there are so many people that were short, they’ve now got to recover their position.” — Phil Anderson
“I found the Middle East events for myself personally, this time, a bit difficult to digest…it started to affect my judgment.” — Phil Anderson
“In 2024, you’d be expecting if you have a trend potentially 30 weeks up, which will take us sometime into May.” — Phil Anderson