BBI October 2023 Q&A — Boom Bust Insiders
Summary
October 2023 session dominated by the onset of the Israel-Gaza conflict (October 7). Akhil notes the dollar has made a 50% retracement (144 weeks from late-2020 low) — an important pivot for the dollar to start declining, which is good for commodities and emerging markets. Phil discusses the book “Plato and the Quran” by a long-time subscriber (who is receiving death threats for it). He connects the October 4 dollar peak to the October 7 Gaza attack — markets often preempt major events by 4 days. China property “stabilized” in tier-1 cities with government stimulus — bullish for global economy medium-term.
Key Claims
| Claim | Confidence |
|---|---|
| October 3–4 dollar high = 50% retracement of its full range and 144 weeks from 2020 low — important turning point | High |
| Dollar declining = good for commodities, global trade, emerging markets | High |
| October 7 Gaza attack: markets often preempt major events by several days | Medium |
| China government quietly stimulating property — stabilization in tier-1 cities = bullish for global commodity demand | Medium |
| False breaks more common now than in Gann’s day — markets reverse faster as shorts cover | High |
Predictions / Forecasts
| Forecast | Target Date | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar to begin sustained decline from October 2023 | 2023–2026 | Confirmed (dollar weakened 2024) |
| October 27 false low → strong reversal upward | Oct 2023 | Confirmed |
| Gold approaching all-time highs (dollar declining = good for gold) | 2023–2024 | Confirmed (gold broke $2,000+ in 2024) |
| China property stimulus effect will feed into commodity demand 2024 | 2024 | Confirmed |
| Count from October 27 low = important reference for 2024 turns | 2024 | Pending |
Market Calls & Cycle Position Analysis
- October 4 low = cyclical low for the year; October 27 final “false low” then reversal
- Stocks (US homebuilders): Just below or just above all-time highs — “very bullish”
- Darren’s chart analysis: Nasdaq, Dow, S&P all in bullish flag pole patterns, close to all-time highs
- Japan Nikkei: Serious attempt at breakout above 30,000 toward all-time high 38,000
- Australia: Bottomed on seasonal dates (January 3, March 20, October 4); fourth attempt broke through
- Gold in AUD: All-time highs; iron ore AUD: near $200/ton quietly bullish
Property & Stock Guidance
- US homebuilders: All just below/at all-time highs; Toll Brothers confirmed breakout; Darren presenting watchlist
- Australian gold stocks: GOR (Gold Road) above $2 monthly = buy signal
- Australian copper stocks: Sandfire (SFR) above $7 monthly = buy signal
- Iron ore stocks (AUS): BHP, FMG beneficiaries of AUD iron ore strength
- Japan Nikkei: Breakout toward 38,000 — one of the best investment plays globally
Notable Quotes
“Things are lining up. Everything’s just started to line up to take us into the 2026. I’m worried. I get worried sometimes because everything’s just starting to line up. I just get nervous when that happens because markets should never be that easy like that.” — Phil Anderson
“October 4, the dollar is four days before October 7 when the war started. Markets preempt those sort of things.” — Phil Anderson