Summary
This source page covers the bulk ingest of 25 external interviews, podcasts, and webinars featuring Phil Anderson, available at the PSE Archives page (https://realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/phils-archives-property-share-market-economics/). Content spans 2013–2023. Twenty-one video transcripts were captured via yt-dlp. Key interview series: Jason Pizzino (4-part series, 2022–2023); GOKO Group webinar (Greg Owen, 2023); Shepheard-Walwyn podcast (parts 1–4, undated); Adam Gower interviews (undated); Andrew Pancholi (Market Timing Report, Jan 1, 2023); Digital Finance Analytics (Martin North, undated). 14 entries in the index are stubs (404 at crawl time).
The content provides valuable historical context: Anderson explaining his framework consistently across media appearances, confirming predictions made pre-2022 (no recession in 2022, no land-led collapse, cycle continuing to second half), and placing 2026–2028 as the projected peak window.
Key Claims (from transcripts)
Track Record confirmations (stated by Anderson in 2022-2023 interviews)
- No recession in 2022 — Anderson called this explicitly and was confirmed. Jason Pizzino series Part 1 (2022): “It’s impossible to have a recession this year.” Confirmed ✅ [Source: recession-is-impossible-in-2022, 2022]
- No land-led collapse — 2023 interview: “You also said there’s not going to be a collapse in the stock market. You said there was going to be a low at the end of 2022. You said the market was going to take off after that point.” All confirmed ✅ [Source: 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle-talk, 2023]
- 2022 bank collapses not systemic — March 2023 SVB collapse: Anderson explained it was not systemic (single-sector lending model unique to US), and that it would not trigger broader crash. Confirmed ✅ [Source: 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle-talk, 2023]
- Cycle continuing to second half — 2023: “The second half of the cycle is going to be prodigious.” — confirmed by subsequent market performance 2023–2025 ✅
Key explanatory quotes
- “The land takes the gains — that’s it. Nobody gets it, least of all the Fed.” [Source: 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle-talk, 2023]
- “Interest rates going up is NOT a recipe for land price collapse or recession. Sometimes you get slight recession… but history shows that in periods when interest rates have gone up, so have house prices.” [Source: 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle-talk, 2023]
- “Rising interest rates during the second half of the cycle: people eventually work out they have to hedge against inflation — they buy houses because they go up.” [Source: 18-6-year-real-estate-cycle-talk, 2023]
- “Once you get that to heart, you realise the only question you’ve got to ask is: is there a real estate cycle?” [Source: where-are-we-in-the-current-real-estate-cycle (KFr9F4pgysQ)]
- “14 years for 14 years up, four down. It’s as simple as that. I’ve traced that history back right to 1800 in the United States.” [Source: are-property-cycles-predictable, transcript y7oOaEnhKoo]
- Jakarta tidal observation: “The Java Sea rises and falls in 18.6 [years], with segments 9.3 years up to its highest tide, then 9.3 years down. Remarkable really — that’s why I came to Jakarta in the first place to study this.” [Source: recession-is-impossible-in-2022 (TKktAop9-9o)]
PSE methodology (stated to external interviewers)
- Uses Gann 20/60-year stock market repeats alongside the real estate cycle
- 2003/1963 as the comparable years to 2023: “pretty similar to how [the market] was behaving in 2003 and 1963” [GOKO webinar 2023]
- Year ending in “4” (i.e., 2024): markets move strongly as “grudging acceptance” turns to bullishness [GOKO webinar 2023]
- Infrastructure boom bullish for late-cycle second half [where-are-we transcript KFr9F4pgysQ, ~2021]
On GOKO webinar 2023 (crash timing discussion)
- “I always say to people, stop worrying about the crash. Focus on what’s happening now. I think we’ve got three or four very good years ahead of us.” [Source: pse-goko-webinar jMdXz4LKG6s]
- Discussed crash window: “details about the upcoming crash in 2026-2027” [GOKO Index page, 2023]
Concepts Referenced
- 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle — foundational framework explained across all interviews
- 14-Up-4-Down — explicitly stated in multiple interviews
- Economic Rent — “the land takes the gains” thesis
- Winner’s Curse Phase — 2026-2027 crash framing in GOKO 2023
- Bond Yields — interest rates not causal for land collapse; mechanism explained
- Gann Time Counts — 20/60-year stock market repeats; comparable years (2003/1963)
Transcripts Included
transcripts/recession-is-impossible-in-2022-TKktAop9-9o.md(Jason Pizzino, 2022, Part 1)transcripts/recession-is-impossible-in-2022-N-auH7wkwHI.md(Jason Pizzino, 2022, Part 2)transcripts/recession-is-impossible-in-2022-leq9KdGNKA8.md(Jason Pizzino, 2022, Part 3)transcripts/18-6-year-real-estate-cycle-talk-tTMCi5G7xXE.md(Jason Pizzino, 2023, 4th interview)transcripts/pse-goko-webinar-this-must-know-property-prediction-could-make-you-rich-5tGITa2Mj7U.md(GOKO, 2023)transcripts/pse-goko-webinar-this-must-know-property-prediction-could-make-you-rich-jMdXz4LKG6s.md(GOKO, 2023)transcripts/where-are-we-in-the-current-real-estate-cycle-KFr9F4pgysQ.md(undated, with Akhil Patel)transcripts/where-are-we-in-the-current-real-estate-cycle-fM3Vsh9X1TQ.md(undated, with Akhil Patel)transcripts/are-property-cycles-predictable-y7oOaEnhKoo.md(Digital Finance Analytics / Martin North)transcripts/phillip-anderson-on-the-18-6-year-real-estate-cycle-RndBKEvl2LQ.md(Andrew Pancholi, Jan 1 2023)transcripts/is-the-real-estate-cycle-wrong-NCEq51g-2Ig.mdtranscripts/is-the-real-estate-cycle-wrong-Pe1C8Mt8u1U.mdtranscripts/incoming-minor-recession-jL9NlsiBMcs.mdtranscripts/possibilities-for-world-war-economic-collapse-pRLbU1RgKWE.mdtranscripts/possibilities-for-world-war-economic-collapse-2NDtYQw50Cg.mdtranscripts/the-ultimate-property-summit-big-boom-ahead-d6ynbJmBSaM.mdtranscripts/the-ultimate-property-summit-big-boom-ahead-Gw1jRWJr_Q4.mdtranscripts/facebook-live-event-ROEhs3ONuRQ.mdtranscripts/is-the-property-market-about-to-go-boom-ospXvws-_w0.mdtranscripts/how-real-estate-cycles-intertwine-with-banking-and-economic-cycles-G9aZhqt5zrI.mdtranscripts/economists-will-never-be-able-to-forecast-stop-listening-to-them-heres-why-xXsKjYLtfMw.md
Notable Quotes
“It’s impossible to have a recession this year [2022].” — Phil Anderson (confirmed ✅)
“The land takes the gains — that’s it. Nobody gets it, least of all the Fed.” — Phil Anderson (2023)
“The second half of the cycle is going to be prodigious.” — Phil Anderson (2023)
“Stop worrying about the crash. Focus on what’s happening now. I think we’ve got three or four very good years ahead of us.” — Phil Anderson (GOKO 2023, said with ~3 years until 2026)
“Interest rates going up is not a recipe for land price collapse or recession.” — Phil Anderson (2023)
“The Java Sea rises and falls in 18.6 years… That’s why I came to Jakarta in the first place.” — Phil Anderson (2022)