Phil Anderson

Summary

Phil Anderson is the founder of Property Share Market Economics and author of The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking (2008), the foundational text for PSE’s 18.6-year land cycle framework. He continues to apply and extend this framework, as evidenced by his announcement of Fred Harrison’s new book ‘Cheating’, which aligns with PSE’s cycle analysis. Phil is the primary architect of PSE’s methodology, including the annual Roadmap, Gann dates system, and continuous cycle analysis. Based in Jakarta (as of early 2026), he also runs the Gann class, covering various timing and trading methods.

Key Contributions

18.6-year real estate cycle framework applied to investing, extending Hoyt’s methodology to 200 years of US data
Analysis of SpaceX as indicator of land cycle tops, linking technological enclosure to real estate speculation
Multi-indicator speculative-excess stack: tallest-building records, IPO mania, NYSE margin debt/M2, equity issuance cycle — all four fire simultaneously in June 2026 (Gann #17)
Annual Stock Market Roadmap (Gann-derived decade cycle + 20/60-year repeats)
Integration of economic rent theory (Henry George, David Ricardo) with cycle analysis
Gann dates and seasonal timing system
Cotton/Mississippi planetary rules (2013 class)
Personal life cycle counting (Gann class content)

Works

The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking (2008, Shepheard-Walwyn) — foundational text; documents 18-year US real estate cycle 1800–present across 14 chapters of US history. ISBN 978-0-85683-263-5. Reprinted through 2023. Endorsed by Mason Gaffney (UCR 2009). [Source: The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking, 2026-04-24]
- Written progressively 1998–2004, first posted to EIS website (www.businesscycles.biz), compiled 2008
- Predicts cycle trough ~2010, next boom-bust peak “towards the end of the 2020s”
- Concludes with 7 Secrets: Ricardo’s Law is foundational; land ownership is a government-granted licence; distrust mainstream economists; use the 18-year clock; the only structural fix (land tax) will never be enacted
- Introduces the 18-hour “real estate clock” (named the 24-hour clock in the first edition; renamed per subscriber feedback in 2009 reprint)
Gann class (Melbourne 2013 session on cotton/Mississippi; full archive being released)

Academic Endorsements

Mason Gaffney (2009) formally reviewed The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking as UCR Working Paper 200905, finding it “on the whole persuasive.” Gaffney confirms Anderson “establishes the reality of an 18-year cycle in real estate prices, 1800 to date” and finds the same sequence of leading/lagging indicators in each cycle. [Source: gaffney-review-anderson-secret-life-2009.md]

Track Record (2026 emails)

2026-05-27 | BBI Q&A May 2026: Reaffirms 8–9-month timeline to visible euphoria — “Nobody saw it back then, nobody will see it now… we all still want house prices to go up.” Lays out the end-of-cycle commodity-and-equity sequence (house builders → copper → gold → silver → oil → market) and identifies James Hardie (JHX) as a live inverse Mexican Pete setup — the actionable house-builder breakdown that would confirm the Real Estate Cycle Peak. Frames SpaceX’s June 12 IPO as “the biggest land grab of the millennium” under permissive Trump-administration political timing. Answers Floyd’s short-treasuries question: 3–6 month rolling treasuries OK; refer to The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking p.199 (1906–07 IR spikes) and p.209 (Panic of 1907). Phil running a Melbourne subscribers session Sat May 30 2026 focused on the roadmap. BBI Q&A May 27 2026
2026-05-27 | Gann #13: Introduces the K-shaped economy framing as a stand-alone late-cycle thesis. Cites the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment print of 44.8 (lowest in series history) simultaneously with an approaching ~ $4 T I POw a v e * * (Sp a ce X$ 2T June 12 — largest IPO ever; OpenAI ~ $1 T; A n t h ro p i c$ 1T). Notes wealth concentration: top 10% own ~90% of financial assets. Internal-equities K-shape confirmed via NYSE A/D line double-top vs. February. Adds James Hardie (JHX) to the Short Watchlist (trigger: break below $17) an df l a g s * * XRT$ 80 as the consumer-arm break level. “A $4 trillion IPO wave is on the way, which is exactly the type of speculative mania we should be seeing at this stage of the cycle.” [[sources/2026-05-27-gann-13-market-update|PSE Gann #13 — May 27 2026]]
2026-06-16 | Gann #17: Stacks four independent speculative-excess indicators firing simultaneously: (1) Tallest Building Indicator — Jeddah Tower 2028 target, construction resumed 2025 (echoes Empire State 1929, Burj Khalifa 2004); (2) SpaceX IPO results confirmed — raised $85.7 B (recor d), ma r k e t v a l u e >$ 2T (record), Musk first trillionaire; (3) NYSE Margin Debt/M2 spiking to 2000/2008 levels; (4) JPMorgan $1.5 T n e t e q u i t y i ss u an ceo v er tw oye a rs — s t ro n g es t s in ce t h e l a t e 1990 s (see [[Eq u i t y I ss u an ce C yc l e]]) . Des p i t e a ll f o u rs i g na l s, s t a t es : * " I t^{'} s ha r d t o b e l i e v e t ha tt h er e^{'} s p ro bab l y m ore mania t o g o " * — co n f i r min g in t e n s i f i c a t i o n w i t h o u t a p e ak c a ll . F inan c ia l co n d i t i o n sre main " e x t re m e l y l oose " d es p i t e in f l a t i o n / r a t e - hik eo u tl oo k . P or t f o l i o : XOM an d F U E L s t o pp e d o u t o n I r an p e a ce - d e a l o i lp u ll ba c k (b o t h c l ose d w i t h so l i d g ain s — XOM + 9.1$ 48; BMN removed from AUS Watchlist; APP removed from Short Watchlist. Flags June 22 solstice as key Gann date with curves aligned for late-June peak and July pullback. USD Index testing $100 resistance for the sixth time approaching the seasonal date. [[sources/2026-06-16-gann-17-portfolio-update|PSE Gann #17 — Jun 16 2026]]
2026-06-25 | PSE Sub #27: Melbourne Q&A event recordings released. Full transcript (Part 1: 2h03m, Part 2: 55m55s) provides extraordinary depth: theoretical foundations (land written out of economics, Henry George, 18.6-year cycle inevitability), Gann decade cycle analysis with historical Dow charts, 20/60/90/120-year lookback curves, and a detailed roadmap to 2032. Key new forecasts: October 2027 stock market top (90-year lookback to 1937), October 2028 low (60 months from October 2023), 2029 low (7-year cycle count). Introduced the Trump Put concept (Republican party will not allow markets to collapse), Japanese 30-year JGB as the critical rate to watch, and Project 2025 private money thesis (abolish Fed → biggest boom then biggest collapse). Mars land sale as peak signal (echoes 2007 moon land sale). NASDAQ replacing Dow as leading index (like Gann’s railroad-to-industrial switch). Personal investment update: debt-free except France house, transferring assets to son Allan, waiting for 2028-2031 buying opportunities. [[sources/2026-06-25-melbourne-qa-recordings-now-available|PSE Sub #27 — Melbourne Q&A Recordings (Full Transcript)]]
2026-06-25 | BBI Q&A June 2026: Participated in session covering USD future, AUD/USD wartime freezing precedent, K Wave clarity, GANN dates, and midterm market analysis. Delivered most detailed K-wave plateau explanation to date — commodity prices stay high on a plateau (1960s-70s, 1920s analogues), inflation won’t drop dramatically this cycle, so no 2008-style rate-cut rescue; 1970s-style struggle is the analogue. Laid out the full dollar-hegemony sequencing: Venezuela → Iran → Cuba → South America, all targeting rare-earth/mineral resources for dollar transactions. Warned that dollar imbalance drives toward war by 2028-2029. Revealed Andy Burnham (likely next UK PM) knows Fred Harrison and understands land value tax. Reiterated: save money, don’t take on debt, wait for things to clear. BBI Q&A June 2026
2026-06-22 | Gann #18: Solstice-week update dominated by Warsh’s first Fed meeting — hawkish surprise with nine of 18 FOMC members seeing a rate hike before year-end and Warsh emphasising “price stability” despite political pressure to cut. 2-year Treasury at 4.19% vs fed funds upper range 3.75%; market-implied odds point to September hike. Anderson: “Tighter monetary policy has helped bring about the end of past real estate cycles” — yet conditions “currently remain loose overall, which means that credit remains cheap and plentiful.” Bitcoin retracing higher from critical $60 Ks u pp or t; b re ak d o w n w o u l d b e a " ma ss i v e l osso f s u pp or t " an d l i q u i d i t y w a r nin g, w i t h CO I N m o ni t ore df or b re ak d o w n t h ro ug h$ 145. DXY breaks above 100 — seasonal-date reversal would set up IEFA (unhedged international equity ETF) as a Mexican Pete beneficiary. Explicitly draws the 2008 parallel: “developed international and emerging market equities performed strongly against the U.S. at the end of the last cycle into 2008.” Watchlist cleanup: RKLB, URA, DBA removed (price weakness invalidating setups); COPX, XME, CGS added (Mexican Pete near resistance). [[sources/2026-06-22-gann-18-portfolio-update|PSE Gann #18 — Jun 22 2026]]
2026-06-26 | Gann #19: Compact portfolio update confirming both remaining long positions stopped out. YPF stopped at $48 (r ai se df ro m$ 43 on June 16) after oil-price pullback; “the retracement in YPF has been larger than ideal so we’ll move on from that position.” TBT stopped at $34— t h e 30 yr T re a s u ryy i e l d b re ak o u tt r a d e t ha t A n d erso na dd e d o n M a y 19 ha s n o w f ai l e d . P or t f o l i o h o l d s a s in g l e a c t i v e p os i t i o n : CMG (s h or t, e n t ry$ 28.74, stop $33) . Fl a g s P L TR a s a l i v es h or t se t u p — b ro k e b e l o w i t s in v erse M e x i c an P e t e p a tt er n; s t o p a t$ 135. Anderson: “The stock has been a notable laggard despite the general market excitement around AI stocks.” The portfolio’s contraction from 5 positions (June 9) → 3 (June 16) → 1 (June 26) is the most dramatic late-cycle contraction in its documented history. [[sources/2026-06-26-gann-19-ypf-tbt-stop-loss-update|PSE Gann #19 — Jun 26 2026]]
2026-06-30 | Gann #20: Intermarket correlations and breadth update. CMG stopped out — the portfolio’s last active position — leaving the Mex Pete Model Portfolio at zero active positions for the first time in its documented history. The contraction trajectory: 5 (June 9) → 3 (June 16) → 1 (June 26) → 0 (June 30). Anderson systematises intermarket correlations as a named analytical framework for the first time: USD/commodities (structural), S&P/oil (cyclical), Bitcoin/software-IGV (leading indicator), MAGS/RSP (breadth signal). Reports the first breadth improvement since the April divergence pattern emerged — RSP making new highs while MAGS pulls back — and shifts Roadmap emphasis toward the red-line (bullish) scenario. Frames the CMG stop-out as market feedback: “A lack of good follow-through on short positions is another form of feedback from the market you shouldn’t ignore.” MSFT $350 support flagged as a correlated watch via the Bitcoin/IGV relationship. [[sources/2026-06-30-gann-20-intermarket-breadth-cmg-stop|PSE Gann #20 — Jun 30 2026]]
2026-07-01 | Sub #28: Mid-year Roadmap assessment — confirms red-line (bullish 2006-style) scenario as primary guide: “The 20/60 line has been fabulous for forecasting each year for over a decade up til now. It seems it’s the red line presently.” Acknowledges the March deviation (actual ran counter to forecast) but frames late-March low as yearly low called in early April. Cites June’s sharp one-day price reversals as a bullish Gann signal: “Time turns the trend, not price.” Restates cycle-peak preconditions from the 2026 Roadmap (p.25): markets haven’t risen enough yet; “all the talk of ‘AI bubbles’ has to cease” and short sellers must be “put out of business.” Frames war as structurally inevitable under land enclosure: “It’s hard to see wars calming down any time soon… especially when war becomes the US President’s family business.” Shares Stonehenge AI reanalysis connecting 56 Aubrey Holes to the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle (56 ≈ 3 × 18.6), reinforcing the ancient empirical roots of PSE’s planetary timing methodology. [[sources/2026-07-01-pse-sub-28-roadmap-notes-into-july|PSE Sub #28 — Roadmap Notes into July]]
2026-07-02 | Sub #29: July macro commentary — steps back from trade updates to deliver a Winner’s Curse assessment: “all the hallmarks of the usual effort by investors to turn a dollar into ten overnight — normal in the ‘winner’s curse’ — is underway in earnest.” Cites three international speculative-excess signals: Gen Z traders “going for broke” (Bloomberg June 17), Taiwan stock leverage surging, South Korean margin debt at record levels (Reuters June 8). Rising government borrowing costs globally and mounting interest payments as a share of GDP provide the rate-pressure backdrop — “history shows all economic excesses are eventually ‘popped’ by rising interest rates.” Flags US vulnerability: Iran war spending + permanent armaments increases + Trump as “a master in spending other people’s money… military spending is the best of all. It’s now part of the family business.” Restates crash not yet imminent but “coming in due time.” Previews extended Roadmap out to 2031 “due shortly” to “put a date on the troubles beginning.” [[sources/2026-07-02-pse-sub-29-july-commentary|PSE Sub #29 — July Commentary]]
2026-06-12 | Citizen’s Dividend Project: Announces citdiv.org — a public educational companion to PSE focused on Economic Rent and the Citizen’s Dividend. Frames SpaceX as “the largest enclosure of ‘land’ that we’ve seen for some time, if ever” and states it will mark the top of the current cycle “within the way the cycle turns.” PSE Citizen’s Dividend — Jun 12 2026
2026-06-09 | Gann #16: Breadth deterioration continues — NYSE A/D line and % of stocks above 50-day MA both peaked mid-April and have not recovered to new highs despite S&P 500 at new highs since late May. PSE forecast curves aligned with another period of weakness in late June around the solstice date. Short setups — “essentially our Mexican Pete pattern flipped upside down” (descending triangles) — are the focus. Short candidates: ITB (watch $85), CO I N, MSTR (w a t c h$ 100). FCX stopped out as a false breakout after failing to hold the Mex Pete breakout level. Anderson: “The action in FCX also shows that buying breakouts remains tough with many sectors outside of semiconductors struggling for traction. It could be another sign that better setups ahead could be from the short watchlist.” [[sources/2026-06-09-gann-16-portfolio-update|PSE Gann #16 — Jun 9 2026]]
2026-06-03 | Gann #14: Frames the macro setup as tightening financial conditions — Fed outlook shifting from tailwind to headwind, CPI/PPI re-accelerating, and the 2-year Treasury yield crossing above the current fed funds target (bond-market signal for rate hikes). Reads ITB bouncing weakly off $85 s u pp or t an d B i t co in f or min g ab e a r f l a g n e a r$ 60,000 as the two liquidity-sensitive tells — “the market’s way of discounting tighter financial conditions ahead.” Portfolio: DBA stopped out (pyramid preserves a slight overall gain, kept on watch for re-add); YPF added on a Mex Pete breakout with a $43 stop, consistent with PSE’s commodities-and-producers thesis for this cycle stage. [[sources/2026-06-03-pse-gann-14-market-update|PSE Gann #14 — Jun 3 2026]]
2026-05-26 | Sub #26: Delivers most direct cycle-end call on record: “I think this is the beginning of the end.” After reviewing FT coverage of banks offloading AI/data center debt, African governments using total return swaps, and the US 30-year yield confirming above 5%, Anderson declares: “We’ve now had 14 years of rising land prices in the U.S.” and maps current AI debt to the 2006 peripheral land rush. Gives no specific peak date (“months, maybe even a year”). Closes with: “Now is not the time to take on heavy debt. Interest rates — especially the long bond — are what you need to watch now.” Also flags Japanese long-bond risk as a secondary squeeze on US Treasury demand. [[sources/2026-05-26-pse-sub-26-beginning-of-the-end|PSE Sub #26 — May 26 2026]]
2026-05-19 | Gann #12: Flags historic breadth divergence — nearly 10% of S&P 500 constituents made 52-week lows on May 13 while the index hit a record high, the largest such share in history. Only 50% of stocks above 50-day MA; 37% above 20-day MA. CPI +3.8% April YoY (3-year high); PPI +6.0% (highest since end-2022). Confirms 30-year Treasury yield has broken above 5% (highest since 2007) from a Mexican Pete ascending triangle PSE had been tracking. Market-implied odds now point to a Fed rate hike within six months. Adds TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, 2× inverse) to Mex Pete portfolio with $34 stop. Draws direct parallel to late-1990s internet bubble: AI mega-caps driving indexes while average stocks deteriorate under rising rates. States: “Everything in the market is brought together by interest rates.” [[sources/2026-05-19-gann-12-market-update-may-2026|PSE Gann #12 — May 19 2026]]
2026-05-18 | Gann #11: Reviews two completed/active trade examples. LYC (Lynas Rare Earths): entered Jun 26, 2025 @ AUD 9.28, exited Oct 29, 2025 @ AUD 15.56 — +67% in four months using trailing-stop discipline. Notes “a lot of news at that high” before exit; will factor news concentration at highs into future exit discipline. XOM (Exxon Mobil): entered Jan 16, 2026 @ $129.13, up ~22.30% as of this date. Provides mining-stock Gann date refinement: 12th and 28/29 of month for sector-specific timing. Quotes Livermore: “The hardest thing to do when the trade goes your way is to sit on your hands and do nothing.” [[sources/2026-05-18-pse-sub-email-gann-11-set-up-examples|PSE Gann #11 — May 18 2026]]
2026-05-13 | Flags ITB (home construction ETF) top in October 2024 as echoing the 2005 homebuilder peak (2 years before 2007 S&P top). Financials (XLF) lagging and below 200-day MA. NYSE A/D line not confirming S&P new highs; five AI mega-caps account for half of gains since April. Crypto weakness flagged as potential liquidity signal; will elaborate next week. Portfolio: DBA stop raised to $27.40; CO I N a dd e d t os h or tl i s t (b e a r f l a g$ 140). [[sources/2026-05-13-gann-sub-email-gann-10-for-2026-market-update-13-may|PSE Gann #10 — May 13 2026]]
2026-05-11 | Announces Fred Harrison’s new book ‘Cheating: The Human Project and Its Betrayal’, highlighting Harrison’s accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crash and his forecast of five major crises clashing around 2028. Book Launch: Fred Harrison’s ‘Cheating’
2026-04-22 | Reaffirms 2026 Roadmap forecast of a late April peak followed by weakness into Q4, sticking to the “red line” scenario. Notes lagging market breadth despite S&P 500 new highs. PSE Market Update for 22 April 2026
2026-04-22 | Mex Pete Portfolio updates: CNX Resources (hit stop loss), DBA (stop raised to $26.80), PFG (removed), AR (removed), VTM (added to Australian watchlist), HD (added to short watchlist) PSE Market Update for 22 April 2026
2026-04-28 | Flags May 4 (solstice/equinox midpoint) as key Gann date where “various forecast curves are aligned in seeing a peak soon that could mark a top until a fourth quarter rally sets in.” Introduces Dow 30 Bubble Index construction (% of Dow constituents in 9-month uptrend; >90 = peak imminent; red line declining steadily over past year). Flags cyclical double-tops (Dow Transports, XLB, FCX, RIO) and XLF/XLI below earlier-year highs as sector-level breadth divergence. PSE Market Update for 28 April 2026
2026-04-28 | Portfolio updates: FUEL stop raised to $8.35; D B A p yr ami d - a dd t r i gg er ab o v e$ 28; YPF SA added to US watchlist with $48 breakout trigger. Reaffirms ag and energy as late-cycle sectors expected to do well. PSE Market Update for 28 April 2026
2026-04-29 | BBI Q&A: K-Wave peaks at 1919/1974/2026; masking effect thesis — K-wave commodity support will moderate the land-price collapse. October 2023 low + 30 months = April 2026; next 30 months = October 2028. NASDAQ to replace Dow as leading index over next decade (like Gann swapping railroads for Dow in 1920s). Fred Harrison debate: Fred is “entirely correct” about the 2026 confluence, but scares without playbook. Copper double-top confirmed (FCX). Practical message: own home, AI-proof job, don’t be in high debt. BBI Q&A April 29 2026
Predicted Iran regime change before Feb 28 war (Jan 12, 2026 email)
Roadmap forecast called Feb 2026 pause/dip correctly
PSE Clock at “3pm” (final frantic peak) as of week of March 23, 2026
As of March 31, 2026: maintains cycle top NOT yet seen

Events / Appearances

2026-07-06 | Curates four podcasts for PSE subscribers — a learning-resource email spanning the PSE intellectual ecosystem: Karim El-Ayoubi on Realonomics (Shepheard-Walwyn), Akhil Patel on cycles/markets, a 17th-anniversary retrospective on The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking featuring subscriber voices, and Fred Harrison’s biographical interview, which Anderson calls “essential viewing.” Notes Shepheard-Walwyn’s 50+ years publishing land-economics material and signals a forthcoming podcast with an author he has “long wanted to hear.” Four Podcasts Worth Your Time
2026-07-13 | London Meet & Greet recordings released. Three sessions: (1) current 2026 cycle position — property, stocks, inflation, interest rates, broader economy; (2) Andrew Pancholi as special guest presenting big-picture cycle convergence framework; (3) Anderson on land/stock market/commodity cycle positions and scenarios for stock market peak alignment with land cycle peak. Slides included. Source page
2026-07-17 | Sub #31: Identifies fund manager sentiment as a late-cycle signal — BofA survey (via Bloomberg July 14) shows US fund managers increasingly bullish with cash levels falling below 4%. Frames this as “the right emotions are building” — fear disappearing, “all we can see is blue sky” — which he identifies as a necessary precondition for the final top. Provides practical heuristic: buy when fund manager cash levels are high (6%+), look to sell when they fall below 4% toward 3%. Directs subscribers to the Roadmap for more precise timing. [[sources/2026-07-17-pse-sub-31-right-emotions-are-building|PSE Sub #31 — Jul 17 2026]]
2026-07-17 | Gann #22: Methodology reminder email restating the foundations of the PSE trading process — Gann’s Truth of the Stock Tape page 67 (Mex Pete), the 52-week-highs scanning method, and the Bessembinder empirical foundation (4% of stocks produce most of the market’s long-term gains). Cites the 18.6 Strategic Investment Portfolio (Oakleighfs, since 2021) as live proof. Flags Bloomberg’s July 10 article on young investors “betting it all” as “a common ‘Winner’s Curse’ response.” [[sources/2026-07-17-gann-22-reminder-about-the-process|PSE Gann #22 — Jul 17 2026]]
2026-07-20 | Sub #32: “From the Vault” — resource recommendation email directing subscribers to revisit the February 2020 Forecast Class for Gann time cycles and North Node content. Surfaces Gann’s explicit forecast: “Another bad period for the United States will be 2026 to 2030.” Highlights convergence of lunar cycles, Uranus 84-year cycle (connected to America’s 250th anniversary in 2026), and other Gann-identified time periods as “particularly significant” for the coming years. Also recommends Subscriber Email #24 as a resource compilation. [[sources/2026-07-20-pse-sub-32-from-the-vault|PSE Sub #32 — Jul 20 2026]]
2026-07-08 | Gann #21: Seasonal dates and dollar weakness update. DXY rallies into the June 22 solstice following a trend change around the May 4 midpoint, then reverses lower — confirming the seasonal-date mechanism in currency markets and setting up IEFA (unhedged international equity ETF) as a Mexican Pete beneficiary. 30-year Treasury yield reversing higher on the seasonal date after a false breakout above 5%; TBT re-watched for a second attempt. Two new watchlist additions: XAR (Aerospace & Defense ETF, buy > $295) — a M e x i c an P e t ese t u pt i e d t o t h e w a r - p ro f i t eer in g t h es i s f ro m * T h e S ecre t L i f eo f R e a lE s t a t e an d B ankin g * p .329; * * MET A * * (M e t a Pl a t f or m s, s h or t <$ 540) — series of lower highs, peaked last summer, though lacking the flat bottom of an ideal short setup. Portfolio remains at zero active positions for the fourth consecutive PDF snapshot (June 30 → July 2 → July 6 → July 8), the longest zero-position period in documented history. PLTR remains the sole live trade (entry $107.27, s t o p$ 135, current $134.37). [[sources/2026-07-08-gann-21-seasonal-dates-dxy-xar-meta|PSE Gann #21 — Jul 8 2026]]
2026-07-22 | BBI Q&A July 22 2026: Major session covering October 2027 time-count framework, AI/data-centre cycle signals, and Mexican Pete trading Q&A. Anderson reveals the April 2025 low + 30 months = October 2027 time count, with July 2026 as the midpoint — confirmed by the July 6 Gann date emotional turn (Iran, World Cup, Taylor Swift wedding). Shorts in US market at record levels — “the highest it’s ever been” — and until shorts are “put out of business,” the market cannot decline. Raises “free AI from China” as October 2027 shock scenario. Frames Trump as “bookend to the American Republic” — first president Washington = land speculator, 47th = real-estate speculator. Provides Mexican Pete breakout entry rules (retracement <50%, gap between prior tops and retrace = strength) and retest count guidance (3rd–4th best, 5th–6th = probably failing). BBI Q&A July 22 2026
2026-07-23 | Gann #23: CPI integrity and the second-half construction boom. Frames Trump’s corruption (selling early access to Truth Social posts, 21,000 securities trades) as calling “into question the integrity of economic data.” The 2-year Treasury yield “barely budged” after the June CPI report — “the collective wisdom of market participants isn’t buying the June CPI report’s message of moderating inflation.” Market-implied odds still point to rate hikes at September FOMC and March 2027. Identifies AI/data-centre infrastructure as the second-half construction boom driving inflation through electronics prices: Tim Cook cites semiconductor increases “unlike anything he had seen in any area in over 40 years”; Musk calls it “the biggest price jump in anything I’ve ever seen.” Import prices ex-fuels at 4.2%, computer/electronic components +7.5%. “Learning to read a chart is now more important than ever.” [[sources/2026-07-23-gann-23-cpi-integrity-second-half-construction-boom|PSE Gann #23 — Jul 23 2026]]
2026-07-28 | Gann #24: Commodities breakout and the commodity/S\u0026P ratio. GSG (iShares S\u0026P GSCI Commodity ETF) broke out from a four-year Mexican Pete basing pattern and retraced ~50% before turning back higher. Anderson frames this within the historical commodity/S\u0026P ratio pattern: spikes in 1973, 1990, and 2008 — all real estate cycle peaks — with the current rally having not yet produced a similar spike, suggesting more commodity upside ahead. Notes data centre construction (materials + energy) as this cycle’s commodity driver, vs. China’s construction boom in the 2000s. “We could still be in the early stages of a commodity boom, which could have big implications for the outlook for interest rates (and ultimately the end of the real estate cycle’s upswing).” Watchlist updates: XME removed (price action not constructive), DBA re-added (buy > $28.50), D RS a dd e d (b u y >$ 50, defense contractor late-cycle play). Portfolio remains at zero active positions — 28 days across thirteen PDFs, the longest zero-position period in documented history. PLTR at $131.53, short in profit. [[sources/2026-07-28-gann-24-commodities-breakout-gsg-dba-drs|PSE Gann #24 — Jul 28 2026]]
2026-07-29 | BBB Postcard #40: “Has Trump Made Those Economic Hit Men Redundant?” — draws historical parallel between Nazi Germany’s enablers and the current US presidency, focusing on how Trump has cut out the traditional EHM (Economic Hit Man) intermediary layer described by John Perkins (Confessions of an Economic Hit Man). Instead of using EHMs to trap developing nations in debt, Trump directly abducts leaders, bombs countries, and has his family involved in companies securing natural resources and owning warfare/drone companies. Promotes Jonathan Brown’s Shepheard-Walwyn podcast interview with Perkins. Notes Hitler’s wealth accumulation mechanisms (royalties, tax exemption, industrialist slush funds — Henry Ford included) as a system comparison: “I’m comparing the system here, not the people themselves.” Reaffirms Gann’s core insight: “history repeats in set time frames… never exactly the same way though and can only do so in a way relevant to the current time.” [[sources/2026-07-29-bbb-postcard-40-trump-economic-hit-men|BBB Postcard #40 — Jul 29 2026]]
2026-07-03 | Announces Victorian special panel screenings (14–18 July) of Common Wealth, a documentary he executive-produced by filmmaker Kane Guglielmi. The film explores economic and political systems and how societies might build greater unity and equity — aligned with his Citizens’ Dividend project. Prior screenings sold out. Common Wealth Film — Special Screenings — follow-up to the July 2025 trailer announcement.
2026-05-30 | Melbourne Subscriber Q&A Session. Phil Anderson confirmed he would record the event for later release. Announcement
2026-04-29 | BBI Q&A Session with Akhil Patel announcement

External Interviews Track Record (Phil’s Archives, 2022–2023)

Cross-media confirmations of key calls, documented in 25 interviews/podcasts/webinars (Jason Pizzino x4, GOKO Greg Owen 2023, Andrew Pancholi Jan 2023, Martin North/Digital Finance Analytics, Shepheard-Walwyn podcast x4, Akhil Patel joint appearances). [Source: 2022-2023-phils-archives-external-interviews, 2026-05-27]

No recession in 2022 — called explicitly; confirmed ✅
No stock market collapse — market low end-2022, then takeoff: called and confirmed ✅
SVB (March 2023) not systemic — explained correctly as single-sector US banking uniqueness; not a cycle trigger ✅
Second half of cycle prodigious — “I think we’ve got three or four very good years ahead of us” (GOKO 2023); confirmed by 2023–2025 performance ✅
Crash window 2026-2027 — stated in GOKO 2023 webinar as “the upcoming crash in 2026-2027” ⏳

Style

Direct, geopolitical commentary, Georgist framing of all current events
Quotes Henry George, David Ricardo, Adam Smith
Willing to say “worse is coming” and express strong views on US foreign policy

Contradictions & Open Questions

Anderson’s claim that the 18-year cycle is structural and empirically continuous back to 1836 sits in tension with Ryan-Collins’s argument that the cycle is credit-driven and was largely suppressed in the Bretton Woods era (1945–1970). Anderson does not address this tension directly.
His practical recommendation (“own home, AI-proof job, don’t be in high debt”) contrasts with the severity of the structural analysis. What’s the investor playbook for those who cannot own property outright?

Additional Key Concept Links

Hoyt Chicago Land Cycle — Anderson’s book extends Hoyt’s methodology to full US history
Geo-Austrian Synthesis — PSE framework shares theoretical roots with Foldvary’s synthesis
Mason Gaffney — endorsed Anderson’s book in 2009
Fred Harrison — foundational influence; Harrison holds Anderson’s work in high esteem

Investment & Economics Wiki

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