Summary
Phil Anderson reviews the August–November 2023 market softening in the context of the PSE Roadmap, drawing parallels to the 7-year cycle (2016 analog), the 36-year cycle (1987 crash analog), and the 72-year cycle (1951). He acknowledges a possible oversight in not extending the 7-year lookback more explicitly into 2023, and notes that emotionally significant historical years on key time frames may warrant greater attention in future Roadmaps.
Key Claims
- The 20-year, 60-year, and 100-year cycles successfully forecast a mid-cycle market peak in early 2020, made years in advance — confidence: high (per author’s assertion)
- The 7-year cycle in the Dow has repeated consistently; counting back every 7 years from 2022 confirms this — confidence: medium
- 2016 showed August highs followed by a pronounced November seasonal date turn; 2023 has mirrored this pattern — confidence: medium
- 360 weeks from the Trump election victory (8 November 2016) aligns with the onset of the Israel–Gaza conflict in October 2023 — confidence: low (speculative, author notes possible linkage)
- 36 years back (1987) showed August highs and a dramatic October low, paralleling 2023’s August high and subsequent weakness — confidence: medium
- 72 years back (1951) also showed October volatility and an 8 November low, though not dramatic — confidence: medium
- War has historically been positive for financial markets (“war has always (sadly) been good for business”) — confidence: medium
- Phil maintains the Roadmap’s year-end rally expectation despite uncertainty — confidence: low (acknowledged as unresolved)
Mex Pete References
None.
Stock Picks / Signals
None.
Predictions / Forecasts
- Year-end rally for 2023: Phil states he will “stick with what the Roadmap suggests” but acknowledges the outcome is uncertain as of the email date — confidence: low
- Intention to incorporate emotionally significant historical analog years more explicitly into the 2024 Roadmap
Notable Quotes
“360 weeks from that shock Trump victory (November 8 2016) was the ‘shock’ Israeli situation. Maybe they’re linked somehow.”
“War has always (sadly) been good for business.”