Summary
Source: Akhil Patel In 2011, I started searching for answers as to why such destructive financial events like the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) still occurred. At that time US property prices were heading south1, and the US stock market was limping along and would not reach its previous high made in 2007 for another 6 years2. In Australia it would take 8 years before the stock market would reac
Key Claims
- • End of cycle recession commenced 1957 = 18 – 24 months after 1955/56 property top. • In this cycle it was necessary to monitor both nominal and real index for the start, top and low. 1958 - 1975 Chart 10: Source: Robert Shiller data, CStacey Chart 11: Source: Robert Shiller data, CStacey 14 years up 10 ©2026 Property Sharemarket Economics — confidence: medium
- • Stock market peaked 11 months after property • The recession started in July 1990, being 11 months after the peak in property prices. 1992 - 2012 Chart 16: Source: Robert Shiller data, CStacey Chart 17: Source: Robert Shiller data, CStacey 14 years up 13 ©2026 Property Sharemarket Economics — confidence: medium
- I hope to show with this report, that by monitoring US national property prices via nominal and real prices there is a very real pattern that we can employ in real time to make wise choices for our future. As Fred Harrison has said the 18-year cycle is now part of the DNA of the American economy. Now we wait for time to show us the way. Best wishes, Cathy Stacey And your Property Sharemarket Economics team. 14 years up 18 ©2026 Property Sharemarket Economics — confidence: medium
- Akhil Patel Director Akhil is one of the world’s leading experts in economic, financial and property cycles. He has been working with Phillip J Anderson for over a decade to produce unique research that combines an in- depth understanding of business, real estate, and stock market cycles. — confidence: medium
- Darren Wilson Editor in Chief Darren is the former Australian Technical Analysts Association (ATAA) ACT Chapter President, General Manager of Property Sharemarket Economics (PSE), Editor of the Boom Bust Bulletin, Investor and trader according to the 18.6-year Real Estate Cycle. — confidence: medium
Notable Quotes
“It is such an important indicator because US property prices have shown that they are the leading financial indicator for the largest economy in the world.”
“Teamed up with a dedicated group of analysts and researchers sharing the most important cycle of all: the 18.6 year land and credit cycle.”