Summary
Continuation of Harrison-Anderson-Patel interviews. Covers: how Phil and Fred first met and collaborated, Fred Harrison’s failed attempt to reform Russia’s tax system in the 1990s, why economic rent language needs to change (“land value tax” triggers resistance, better framing = “paying for what you receive”), Don Riley’s “Taken for a Ride” case study showing Jubilee Line investment enriching landowners at public expense, and the question of whether the current cycle (2010-) was broken by COVID.
Key Claims
- Phil’s business philosophy: accept that land economics is unfixable, but understand the cycle and make money from it — rather than Fred’s moral reform campaign. — confidence: high
- Pandemic did not reset the 18.6-year cycle. Fred: “Japan was already heading into recession in 2019, US data was pointing down. The pandemic was a random event that intruded.” — confidence: high
- Don Riley’s Jubilee Line study: location value increased by amount of public investment — landlords pocketed the gain, wage-earners funded it. — confidence: high
- “Land value tax” language backfires because people hear “you’ve got something and we’ve come to take it away.” Better framing: “you pay for what you receive.” — confidence: high
- Mason Gaffney’s “Corruption of Economics” documents how land was systematically removed from economic vocabulary by rent-seeking interests via land-grant college appointments. — confidence: high
- Land value data is essentially a “state secret” — no systematic public compilation. House prices used as proxy. — confidence: high
Predictions / Forecasts
- 14-year expansion cycle still intact from 2010 (COVID was not a cycle reset). — status: confirmed
Notable Quotes
“This current cycle: data was already pointing down [in 2019]. The pandemic was a random event. The cycle that began in 2010 — has that distracted? I don’t share that view.” “Land values are more or less a state secret.”