Executive Summary
Fred Harrison’s Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010 (2005, Shepheard-Walwyn) is his definitive prediction book — published 2-3 years before the 2008 crash — demonstrating 200 years of UK house price data confirming the 18-year cycle. The Financial Times described it as making “a case for the existence of an 18-year business cycle.” The book predicted the 2010 depression using the cycle, building on his earlier The Power in the Land (1983). The prediction was confirmed when the GFC began in 2007-08.
Key Content (from secondary sources)
- 200 years of UK house price data validating the ~18-year cycle pattern
- Prediction: “By 2007, Britain and most other industrially advanced economies will be in the throes of frenzied activity in the land market… on the verge of the collapse that will presage the global depression of 2010.” [Cited in Gaffney 2009]
- 14+2+2 periodization — 14 years of land price rise, 2 years from peak to trough, 2 years for recovery = 18-year total
- FT endorsement: made “a case for the existence of an 18-year business cycle”
- Mark Dampier (Hargreaves Lansdowne, £10bn AUM) regularly cited it
Cross-References
- Fred Harrison — the author
- 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle — the core prediction framework
- Financial Timetable — historical cycle timetable underlying the prediction
- Hoyt Chicago Land Cycle — Harrison’s source for the empirical data
Access Status
⚠️ BLOCKED — Purchase Required
To unblock:
- Amazon UK: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Boom-Bust-Prices-Banking-Depression/dp/0856831891
- Publisher: https://shepheardwalwyn.com
- Check Floyd’s bookshelf — likely already owned