Executive Summary
Popular finance article testing Foldvary’s credit-expansion cycle thesis against post-2008 monetary conditions. Fetch at ingest time returned a 403 / Cloudflare challenge; page text not captured directly. Content preserved as a cycle-skeptic/discussion source that questions whether near-zero rates (2008–2022) broke the cycle’s feedback loop.
Key Claims (from Phase 1 catalogue summary)
- Assesses Foldvary’s credit-expansion thesis against post-2008 Fed policy.
- Questions whether the cycle remains predictive in the post-ZIRP era.
Access Note
Fetch attempt 2026-05-03 returned Cloudflare captcha (403). Site requires interactive browser session. Source retained as a placeholder; reconcile in a later pass with bh (browser-harness) if needed.
Concepts Referenced
- 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle — post-2008 validity question
- Fred Foldvary — credit-expansion thesis
Cross-References
- mat-smith-substack-2024 — parallel cycle-skepticism from UK perspective
- foldvary-riding-upswing-2015 — the exact thesis being tested
[Source: raw/dear-money-18yr-still-work.md, fetched 2026-05-03 (blocked by CAPTCHA)]