Executive Summary

Phil Anderson’s The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking (2008, Shepheard-Walwyn) is the foundational text of PSE’s 18.6-year cycle framework. Anderson traces the cycle through 200 years of US history using Hoyt’s methodology, explains how land speculation drives credit expansion and collapse, and provides the investment framework that underlies all of PSE’s subsequent research. Formally reviewed and endorsed by Mason Gaffney (UCR Working Paper 200905) as “on the whole persuasive.” The book is referenced on pages 285 and 329-330 in PSE subscriber emails.

What We Know From Secondary Sources

  • From Gaffney’s review (abstract): Anderson “establishes the reality of an 18-year cycle in real estate prices, 1800 to date, emphasizing the land element, mainly urban land and subsoil resources.” He uses the term “enclosure” for land privatization, finds “the same sequence of leading and lagging indicators in each cycle,” and demonstrates that “other dips are trivial relative to those based on the real estate cycle.”
  • From PSE emails: Specific pages (285, 329-330) are referenced in subscriber context — likely containing data tables or the key cycle mechanism diagrams
  • From the Foldvary booklet (publisher’s note): Anderson’s book is presented alongside Foldvary’s and Harrison’s as part of the same intellectual tradition

Cross-References

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